No Next Minister by Feb 28: 49% on Oct 20, 33% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Oct 29, 11 PM ETNo Next Minister by Feb 28: 41% → 65%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
Oct 20, 9 PM ETNo Next Minister by Feb 28: 49% → 31%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
No Next Minister by Feb 28
33%
▼ 4
32¢
34¢
$2.94
$20.1K
Yoram Cohen
30%
▲ 5
1¢
60¢
$1.68
$410
Avigdor Lieberman
29%
▲ 3
1¢
56¢
$1.77
$317
Michael Malchieli
26%
▲ 1
1¢
51¢
$1.98
$3K
Aryeh Deri
17%
1¢
33¢
$3.07
$546
Moshe Arbel
9%
▲ 1
1¢
17¢
$6.02
$1.2K
Miri Regev
9%
1¢
16¢
$6.13
$1.1K
Yoav Ben-Tzur
9%
▼ 3
4¢
13¢
$7.69
$2.6K
Keren Terner Eyal
8%
1¢
14¢
$7.04
$355
Orit Farkash-Hacohen
8%
1¢
14¢
$7.14
$421
Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper)
6%
1¢
11¢
$9.26
$383
Ayelet Shaked
4%
▼ 1
1¢
7¢
$15.15
$782
Yariv Levin
4%
1¢
7¢
$15.15
$363
Yair Golan
4%
1¢
6¢
$15.63
$305
Israel Katz
3%
1¢
6¢
$16.13
$1.9K
Eli Cohen
3%
1¢
6¢
$16.95
$334
Meirav Cohen
3%
0¢
5¢
$21.74
$312
Oded Forer
1%
0¢
3¢
$37.04
$306
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Israeli Minister of Interior, Yoram Cohen, Avigdor Lieberman
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions