Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

Polymarket World › Middle East For Oct 31 · $6.2K today · $165K traded · $4.8K at stake · prices read 15 min ago

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The odds

27%October 31
  • October 227%
  • October 427%
  • October 527%
  • October 827%▲ 3
  • October 927%▼ 6
  • October 1427%▲ 2
  • October 1527%
  • October 1627%▼ 16
  • October 1727%▼ 20
  • October 1827%
  • October 1927%▲ 15
  • October 2027%▼ 5
11 more
  • October 2127%▲ 22
  • October 2227%
  • October 2327%▼ 6
  • October 2427%▲ 1
  • October 2527%▲ 3
  • October 2627%
  • October 2727%▲ 7
  • October 2827%
  • October 2927%▲ 5
  • October 3027%▲ 1
  • October 3127%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

October 2: 39% on Oct 20, 27% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 27, 11 PM ETOctober 2: 15% → 21%
  2. Oct 21, 7 PM ETOctober 2: 38% → 14%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
October 1 <1% ▼ 30 1¢ $100.00 $1.7K
October 2 27% 5¢ 91¢ $1.10 $4K
✓ October 3 >99% ▲ 27 72¢ 99¢ $1.01 $2.3K
October 4 27% 4¢ 98¢ $1.03 $5.4K
October 5 27% 95¢ 99¢ $1.01 $4.8K
✓ October 6 >99% ▲ 45 100¢ 100¢ $1.2K
✓ October 7 >99% ▲ 15 100¢ 100¢ $1.3K
October 8 27% ▲ 3 100¢ 100¢ $2.1K
October 9 27% ▼ 6 0¢ $3.1K
✓ October 10 >99% 100¢ 100¢ $1.1K
✓ October 11 >99% ▲ 1 100¢ 100¢ $613
October 12 <1% ▼ 16 0¢ $2.4K
✓ October 13 >99% ▲ 26 100¢ 100¢ $48.5K
October 14 27% ▲ 2 1¢ 9¢ $11.11 $3.4K
October 15 27% 2¢ 50¢ $2.00 $50K
October 16 27% ▼ 16 1¢ $1.5K
October 17 27% ▼ 20 0¢ 0¢ $1.2K
October 18 27% 3¢ 13¢ $8.00 $2.5K
October 19 27% ▲ 15 0¢ 36¢ $2.79 $2.1K
October 20 27% ▼ 5 0¢ $1.8K
October 21 27% ▲ 22 99¢ 100¢ $2K
October 22 27% 1¢ 9¢ $11.11 $4.1K
October 23 27% ▼ 6 0¢ 1¢ $90.91 $2K
October 24 27% ▲ 1 3¢ 10¢ $10.00 $1.7K
October 25 27% ▲ 3 4¢ 41¢ $2.44 $2.7K
October 26 27% 3¢ 9¢ $11.11 $1.7K
October 27 27% ▲ 7 95¢ 100¢ $3K
October 28 27% 2¢ 4¢ $26.32 $1.9K
October 29 27% ▲ 5 1¢ 15¢ $6.67 $1.8K
October 30 27% ▲ 1 1¢ 6¢ $16.67 $1.9K
October 31 27% ▼ 1 4¢ 20¢ $5.00 $1.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Saudi Arabia, Houthi

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions