The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
October 31
82%
▼ 11
72¢
98¢
$1.02
$11.1K
November 30
82%
▲ 2
72¢
84¢
$1.19
$3.8K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
China Just Exposed America’s ‘Carrier Gap’ in the Pacific AgainNewsweek · 6 days agoNov 03, 2026 at 10:34 AM EST Since becoming China’s paramount leader in 2012, Xi Jinping has taken a personal interest in the development of the People’s Liberation Army Navy into a modern fighting force, whose first objective is to defeat…
Trump threats war will be 'wrapped up soon' as he sends aircraft carrier to Middle EastDaily Mirror · 10 days agoTrump has claimed that war will end soon(Image: AFP via Getty Images) Donald Trump has claimed that the war will end soon as he sends another aircraft carrier into the Middle East. The US president made the cryptic claims as tensions have…
Strait of Hormuz routes remain clear, CENTCOM chief claimsCBS News · 10 days agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Latest on Iran…
They sank!: IRGC spox to delusions of terrorist CENTCOM cmdr.Mehr News Agency · 8 days agoTEHRAN, Nov. 02 (MNA) – Referring to the violating vessels and drones which were trapped by the powerful Armed Forces of the country in the Strait of Hormuz, a spokesman for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has said, “They…
U.S. Could Launch Major Military Operations Against Iran Within 96 Hours of Trump Orderarmyrecognition.com · 10 days agoU.S. forces could launch major operations against Iran within 96 hours of a U.S. President Trump order, CNN reports. No authorization has been confirmed. U.S. Could Launch Major Military Operations Against Iran Within 96 Hours of Trump…
Two U.S. Navy Aircraft Carriers Now Ready to Operate New MQ-25A Tanker Dronesarmyrecognition.com · 10 days agoThe U.S. Navy now has two aircraft carriers equipped with the command infrastructure needed to operate its future MQ-25A Stingray tanker drone, after USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) joined USS Theodore ... Two U.S. Navy Aircraft Carriers Now…
Former deputy CENTCOM commander on Trump's Iran war strategyNPR · 11 days agoSteve Inskeep speaks with former deputy CENTCOM commander Robert Harward about President Trump's Iran war strategy. Former deputy CENTCOM commander on Trump's Iran war strategy Steve Inskeep speaks with former deputy CENTCOM commander…
Centcom says 144 vessels redirected under 'ironclad' Iran blockadeMiddle East Eye · 9 days agoMiddle East Eye Centcom says 144 vessels redirected under 'ironclad' Iran blockade The United States Central Command has said that as of 31 October, its forces have redirected 144 commercial vessels as part of its "ironclad" naval blockade…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions