USS George Washington departs CENTCOM by...?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Dec 31 · $469 today · $48.8K traded · $2.9K at stake · prices read 30 min ago

The odds

Dec 11, 2027even chance by

November 154%
November 3033%▼ 14
December 3182%▼ 4

How the odds have moved

November 15: 33% on Oct 20, 4% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 21, 8 PM ETNovember 15: 27% → 12%
- USS George Washington Conducts a Search and Rescue ExerciseDVIDS · 19 days ago

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
November 15	4%		4¢	5¢	$20.41	$7.5K
November 30	33%	▼ 14	25¢	41¢	$2.44	$31.3K
December 31	82%	▼ 4	80¢	84¢	$1.19	$10K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: USS George Washington, CENTCOM

Search ›

USS George Washington Sailors Vote While DeployedMilitarySpot · 7 days agoNOVEMBER 3, 2026 – Sailors aboard the aircraft carrier USS George Washington voted during a voting rodeo event held in the ship’s library last month. Navy Chaplain (Lt.) Steven Matkins, the U.S. Naval Forces Central Command’s voting…
CENTCOM launches Iran-based land blockade task forceFox News · 30 h agoRet. U.S. Navy Capt. Brent Sadler discusses the war in Iran after U.S. forces strike a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Fox News chief foreign correspondent Trey Yingst reports on developments in the Middle East on 'Fox Report.' CENTCOM…
'Defending the Nation, Exercising the Right to Vote': USS George Washington Sailors Cast Ballots.townhall.com · 7 days agoWhile the brave men and women of our armed forces are deployed around the globe to protect America and freedom, they also took time to partake in our midterm elections. Sailors on the USS George Washington, currently in the Arabian Sea…
Explosions target southern Iran as CENTCOM announces new land blockadeFox News · 35 h agoFox News chief foreign correspondent Trey Yingst reports on the latest military action between the U.S. and Iran. The 'Fox News Sunday' provides analysis on the conflict and President Donald Trump's post-midterm strategy. Explosions target…
CENTCOM forces disable ship in Gulf of OmaFox News · 2 days agoSt. Kitts-flagged vessel's civilian crew reportedly ignored multiple warnings and attempted to violate the anti-Iranian naval blockade. (@CENTCOM via X) ... CENTCOM forces disable ship in Gulf of Oma he St. Kitts-flagged vessel's civilian…
U.S. Carrier Strike Group Leaves South China Sea as Washington Prioritises Buildup Against IranMilitary Watch Magazine · 3 days agoChinese commercial satellite imagery has revealed the movement of the U.S. Navy’s Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group through the South China Sea, illustrating how commercial remote-sensing capabilities are making the movements of…
Third US aircraft carrier will not reach the Middle East before mid-November, Axios reportsThe Insight International · 3 days agoBAGHDAD, November 6, 2026. The USS Theodore Roosevelt will not reach the US Central Command area before mid-November, Axios reported on Thursday, citing a US official. The carrier is due to begin a port call in Singapore on Friday and stay…
USS Theodore Roosevelt Arrives In Singapore; Last Stop Before Third Strike Group Reaches The Middle EastTWZ · 3 days agoPublished Nov 6, 2026 4:17 PM EST The next leg of Roosevelt’s transit to the CENTCOM AOR runs north through the narrow Strait of Malacca and west across the vast Indian Ocean. In August, USS George Washington completed the journey from the…
CENTCOM launches task force to disrupt Iranian ground routesOne America News Network · 41 h agoOAN Staff Addie Davis9:57 AM – Sunday, November 8, 2026 United States Central Command (CENTCOM) announced the creation of a new task force to disrupt Iranian ground routes for the transport of “advanced weapons and other materials.” In a…
US to target Iran’s land-based supply routes – CENTCOMRT International · 41 h agoThe US military has announced the creation of a new task force which will be dedicated to disrupting land-based supply routes to Iran. The Task Force Iron Gate is being set up to reinforce Washington’s ongoing sea blockade of the Islamic…
U.S. military launches task force to bolster naval blockade against IranThe Globe and Mail · 2 days agoThe USS George Washington aircraft enforces a U.S. naval blockade against Iran.Ed Ou/Reuters Building on a months-long naval blockade on Iran, the U.S. military said on Saturday it is launching a task force to help crack down on Tehran’s…
US Centcom rejects Iranian reports of vessels hitting Hormuz sea minesMiddle East Eye · 33 h agoThe US military said on Wednesday that claims from Iranian media that commercial vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz were hitting sea mines were "false". "All internationally recognized primary transit routes through the Strait…

Related markets

All middle east ›

World › Middle East

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

17%December 31

October 3117%
November 217%
November 317%

9 more

November 417%▼ 93
November 517%
November 617%
November 717%
November 817%▼ 72
November 1517%▼ 51
November 2217%▼ 40
November 3017%▼ 33
December 3117%▼ 25

World › Middle East

US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?

33%December 31

November 533%
November 633%▲ 1
November 833%▼ 80

3 more

November 1533%▼ 57
November 3033%▼ 39
December 3133%▼ 28

World › Middle East

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

38%December 31

March 3118%▲ 2
October 3118%▼ 2
November 218%▼ 2

3 more

November 1518%▼ 1
November 3018%▼ 4
December 3138%▲ 2

World › Middle East

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

94%October 29

October 2994%
October 3094%
October 3194%▲ 1

12 more

November 194%
November 294%
November 394%
November 494%
November 594%
November 694%
November 794%
November 1594%▲ 4
November 2294%▲ 8
November 3094%▲ 9
December 1594%▲ 10
December 3194%▲ 10

World › Middle East

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

10%chance▲ 3

World › Middle East

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

13%December 31

October 31<1%▼ 1
November 303%▲ 1
December 3113%▲ 3

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$48.8K

Today$469

This week$1.6K

At stake$2.9K

In the news2 headlines today, 82 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USS George Washington (CVN-73) departs the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The Washington will be considered to have departed the CENTCOM area of responsibility upon confirmation by the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, or U.S. Indo-Pacific Command that the ship has departed the CENTCOM area of responsibility or entered the any other area of operations, or upon a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the ship has physically exited the CENTCOM area of responsibility. The departure must occur by the listed deadl

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions