Closest Senate Race?

Polymarket Elections › Senate For Tue 11:59 PM ET · $2K today · $129K traded · $7.4K at stake · prices read 26 min ago

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The odds

94%Mississippi
  • Mississippi94%▲ 2
  • Alaska5%
  • Nebraska1%▲ 1
  • Michigan1%▲ 1
  • Kansas1%▲ 1
  • South Carolina1%▲ 1
  • Texas1%▲ 1
  • Iowa1%▲ 1
  • Maine1%
  • Louisiana1%
  • Tennessee<1%
  • Ohio (Special)<1%
23 more
  • Montana<1%
  • Minnesota<1%
  • Florida (Special)<1%
  • South Dakota<1%
  • Arkansas<1%
  • Kentucky<1%
  • Colorado<1%
  • New Mexico<1%
  • Georgia<1%
  • Virginia<1%
  • North Carolina<1%
  • New Hampshire<1%
  • Alabama<1%
  • Delaware<1%
  • Idaho<1%
  • Illinois<1%
  • Massachusetts<1%
  • New Jersey<1%
  • Oklahoma<1%
  • Oregon<1%
  • Rhode Island<1%
  • West Virginia<1%
  • Wyoming<1%

How the odds have moved

Mississippi: 2% on Oct 26, 94% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 4, 11 PM ETMississippi: 45% → 88%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Mississippi 94% ▲ 2 94¢ 96¢ $1.04 $25.4K
Alaska 5% 4¢ 7¢ $15.38 $15.4K
Nebraska 1% ▲ 1 2¢ $55.56 $3.3K
Michigan 1% ▲ 1 2¢ $55.56 $3.2K
Kansas 1% ▲ 1 2¢ $55.56 $16.5K
South Carolina 1% ▲ 1 2¢ $55.56 $7.8K
Texas 1% ▲ 1 2¢ $58.82 $7.6K
Iowa 1% ▲ 1 2¢ $58.82 $10K
Maine 1% 2¢ $62.50 $5.3K
Louisiana 1% 2¢ $62.50 $7.4K
Tennessee <1% 1¢ $1.1K
Ohio (Special) <1% 1¢ $3.3K
Montana <1% 1¢ $1.7K
Minnesota <1% 1¢ $2.2K
Florida (Special) <1% 1¢ $5.1K
South Dakota <1% 1¢ $2.1K
Arkansas <1% 0¢ $3.2K
Kentucky <1% 0¢ $805
Colorado <1% 0¢ $654
New Mexico <1% 0¢ $649
Georgia <1% 0¢ $620
Virginia <1% 0¢ $283
North Carolina <1% 0¢ $627
New Hampshire <1% 0¢ $1.1K
Alabama <1% 0¢ $289
Delaware <1% 0¢ $289
Idaho <1% 0¢ $1.2K
Illinois <1% 0¢ $289
Massachusetts <1% 0¢ $289
New Jersey <1% 0¢ $289
Oklahoma <1% 0¢ $289
Oregon <1% 0¢ $289
Rhode Island <1% 0¢ $289
West Virginia <1% 0¢ $286
Wyoming <1% 0¢ $343

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Closest Senate

Search ›
  • The Good, the Bad and the Cringe: 10 Ads That Defined the MidtermsDNYUZ · 3 days agoCampaigns spent billions of dollars on ads this year. Some worked. Some didn’t. Some were stirring. Some were cringe. Most will be quickly forgotten. A few will be remembered. Here are some of the most memorable, influential and sometimes…
  • James Talarico upsets Ken Paxton in Texas Senate raceNewsweek · 6 days agoNov 03, 2026 at 11:01 PM EST Nov 03, 2026 at 11:13 PM EST James Talarico, a former teacher who built a national profile as an outspoken progressive Christian, is headed to the U.S. Senate after defeating Republican Attorney General Ken…
  • Colom jolts Mississippi Senate fightenmnews.com · 5 days agoScott Colom has turned what once looked like a long shot into one of Mississippi’s closest Senate contests. The Democrat built an unconventional campaign, pairing a viral ad with an unusual stretch to Republican voters at a Trump rally…
  • Did a nationwide ‘blue wave’ skip Idaho this election? Experts weigh inIdaho Statesman · 4 days agoDemocrats nationwide are celebrating a “blue wave” in Tuesday’s election: a rout of Republicans in federal, statewide and local races. But in Idaho, the results were, on the whole, “fantastic” for the GOP, Republican Party Chairwoman…
  • Ayotte concedes to Hassan in New HampshirePOLITICO · 8 days agoGOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte conceded to Democrat Maggie Hassan Wednesday evening, declining to pursue a recount in the nation’s closest Senate race and tipping a second seat to Democrats after Tuesday’s election. Hassan led Ayotte by just 1,019…
  • Warner wins fourth term in VirginiaThe Center Square · 6 days ago(The Center Square) – Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Warner won a fourth term Tuesday, defeating Republican Bert Mizusawa and keeping Virginia’s two Senate seats in Democratic hands. The call of the race was made immediately after polls closed…
  • Michigan Senate Candidate Abdul El-Sayed Blasts Trump’s Canada Trade War: “You’re the Ahole”**Culture Alberta · 6 days agoFollow us: Instagram · Pinterest · YouTube · Facebook Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed has a blunt take on Donald Trump’s trade war with Canada. “Canadians are nice people,” El-Sayed told supporters at a campaign rally…
  • ABC News crew in Bangor, spoke to Mainers ahead of electionFOX 22/ABC 7 · 7 days agoBANGOR -- The general election is set for Tuesday, November 3rd, and the race between republican Susan Collins and democrat Troy Jackson for Maine's senate seat is as tight as ever, with recent reports saying it's the closest senate race…
  • Here’s what to know before going to vote in New OrleansNOLA.com · 7 days agoElection Day is Nov. 3 It goes without saying that every election is important, but sometimes an election cycle can take on added importance. And with one of Louisiana’s two U.S. Senate seats suddenly in play, the 2026 midterm is…
  • Trump: If Democrats Take Congress, ‘I Guess I’ll Become Mr. Veto’@cdnnow · 8 days agoPresident Donald Trump has a one-word plan if Democrats win both chambers of Congress on Tuesday: veto. “I guess I’ll become Mr. Veto,” Trump told Miranda Devine on her “Pod Force One” podcast, in an episode set to drop Monday, the New…
  • Kansas Senate Race Explained: Can a Democrat Win the Seat for the First Time Since 1932?TimesNow · 7 days agoKansas votes on Tuesday, November 3, in one of the closest Senate races of the US midterm elections. Democrat Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor, is challenging Republican Senator Roger Marshall. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the US…
  • Fact Check: Did Trump say it would be working-class Americans' fault if GOP loses midterms?MEAWW News · 9 days agoWASHINGTON, DC: With the midterm elections only two days away, a claim began circulating on social media platforms that President Donald Trump said that if the Republicans lose the upcoming elections, it would be the fault of working-class…

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  • IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions