Next Premier of New South Wales

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closes Mar 27, 2027 · $15.1K traded · $1.5K at stake · prices read 69 min ago

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The odds

54%Chris Minns
  • Chris Minns54%▼ 5
  • Kellie Sloane21%▼ 1
  • Rose Jackson11%
  • Ryan Park4%
  • Prue Car4%
  • Gurmesh Singh3%
  • Mark Speakman1%
  • Daniel Mookhey1%
  • Mike Newman1%
  • Alister Henskens<1%
  • Penny Sharpe<1%

How the odds have moved

Chris Minns: 54% on Oct 20, 54% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 30, 11 PM ETChris Minns: 56% → 47%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  2. Oct 23, 9 PM ETChris Minns: 50% → 59%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Chris Minns 54% ▼ 5 41¢ 68¢ $1.47 $4.9K
Kellie Sloane 21% ▼ 1 20¢ 23¢ $4.35 $4.1K
Rose Jackson 11% 10¢ 12¢ $8.26 $1.6K
Ryan Park 4% 1¢ 7¢ $13.70 $507
Prue Car 4% 1¢ 6¢ $15.87 $386
Gurmesh Singh 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00 $562
Mark Speakman 1% 1¢ 2¢ $66.67 $1.7K
Daniel Mookhey 1% 0¢ 2¢ $52.63 $385
Mike Newman 1% 0¢ 1¢ $352
Alister Henskens <1% 0¢ 1¢ $323
Penny Sharpe <1% 0¢ 0¢ $343

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Premier of New South Wales, Chris Minns, Kellie Sloane

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  • NSW Premier Chris Minns launches Australia's biggest gun buyback in 30 years amid political battle7NEWS · 8 days agoFrom Monday, gun owners can collect $450 for an air rifle and up to $1000 for a revolver, with more than 300 appointments already booked to surrender almost 2500 firearms. WATCH THE VIDEO ABOVE: NSW gun buyback sparks political showdown…
  • Chris Minns joins Diwali celebrations across western SydneyThe Indian Sun · 7 days agoNSW Premier Chris Minns joined Diwali celebrations and community events across western Sydney, visiting Parramatta, Liverpool and Campbelltown as part of an afternoon of engagements. In Parramatta, Minns attended Diwali festivities…
  • Ten* things I hate about Chris Minns, and should have told the doorknocker who askedThe Age · 7 days agoUpdated November 3, 2026 — 3:38pm,first published 3:30pm I’m in the middle of mountains of post-holiday laundry when my dearly beloved calls me so insistently I assume he’s having a medical episode. Midway down the stairs, arms full of…
  • Rivals share city visions months from state electioncentralwesterndaily.com.au · 4 days agoSurrounded by dozens of powerbrokers, political rivals have shared how they would shape Australia's most populous city. At the Daily Telegraph Future Sydney Bradfield Oration, NSW Premier Chris Minns said building more housing and ignoring…
  • Liberal bus crashes into shop awning on its first outing of Victorian election campaignthe Guardian · 4 days agoOpposition leader Jess Wilson grimaced as the ‘Jess Express’, carrying Liberals and reporters, backs into the structure in suburban Melbourne The Victorian Liberal party’s first offical day on the campaign trail has hit a snag, after its…
  • NSW Liberal exodus: Morale plunges as seventh MP quitsAustralian Financial Review · 4 days agoAFR The NSW Liberals are in turmoil four months from the state election as a sudden exodus of MPs leaves the party scrambling to find candidates and putting Kellie Sloane’s leadership under internal pressure. Liberal MPs say morale is at…
  • First-term MP joins mass exodus ahead of state election@canberratimes · 4 days agoA seventh Liberal MP has resigned ahead of next year's NSW election. "I've made the difficult decision to step away from politics for a while," Mr Lane wrote, describing his time as a state MP, local councillor and Mayor of Ryde a…
  • Plan To Realise Sydney's Metro FutureMirage News · 4 days agoA Sloane Liberal and Nationals Government will establish a Sydney Metro Investment Fund to attract private capital and help deliver an expanded Metro network, connecting more people to jobs, homes and opportunities. The Metro Investment…
  • More Metros, More OftenMirage News · 5 days agoDeputy Leader of the Liberals Shadow Minister for Transport and Infrastructure A NSW Liberal Government will deliver three-minute Metro services, providing greater capacity and shorter wait times. The commitment forms the first part of the…
  • ‘Taken its toll’: First-term Liberal MP in shock departureWAtoday · 4 days agoUpdated November 6, 2026 — 12:44pm,first published 11:57am First-term Liberal MP Jordan Lane has shocked colleagues by announcing he will quit state politics at the March election, saying his time representing Ryde had taken a toll as he…
  • ‘Where’s the fight?’ – Mark Levy takes aim at retiring Liberals2GB · 6 days ago2GB  Mark Levy has called on the NSW Liberal Party to back in their leader Kellie Sloane, after yet another coalition MP announces his retirement. Listen to more highlights from Mornings with Mark Levy below: IMAGE CREDIT/ Getty Images…
  • Did NSW Labor’s safest seat just become a One Nation battleground?The Sydney Morning Herald · 7 days agoNovember 3, 2026 — 1:56pm Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane has lost yet another frontbencher months out from the next election, while Premier Chris Minns has been rocked by the prospect of having a safe seat turn into a battleground…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions