Predictions › Elections › Around the world Morena 70% ▲ 2 MC 17% ▼ 1 PRI 9% ▲ 1 PT 4% PVEM 1% PAN 1%
Morena: 50% on Oct 20, 70% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
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Marine Le Pen 45% David Lisnard 14% ▼ 1 Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13% 43 more Édouard Philippe 9% ▲ 1 Christine Lagarde 6% ▼ 1 Teddy Riner 3% Raphaël Glucksmann 2% Jordan Bardella 2% Dominique de Villepin 2% François Hollande 2% Bruno Retailleau 1% Gabriel Attal <1% Éric Zemmour <1% Sarah Knafo <1% Sébastien Lecornu <1% François Baroin <1% Xavier Bertrand <1% Laurent Wauquiez <1% François Ruffin <1% Marine Tondelier <1% Fabien Roussel <1% Olivier Faure <1% Ségolène Royal <1% François Asselineau <1% Clémentine Autain <1% Nicolas Dupont-Aignan <1% Michel Barnier <1% Valérie Pécresse <1% François Bayrou <1% Élisabeth Borne <1% Yaël Braun-Pivet <1% Jean Castex <1% Gérald Darmanin <1% Carole Delga <1% Bernard Cazeneuve <1% Manuel Bompard <1% Mathilde Panot <1% Juan Branco <1% Clémence Guetté <1% Karim Bouamrane <1% Lucie Castets <1% Yannick Jadot <1% Marion Maréchal <1% Natacha Polony <1% Anasse Kazib <1% Sylvain Durif <1% Gadi Eizenkot 64% Benjamin Netanyahu 24% ▲ 3 Avigdor Lieberman 6% ▼ 1 19 more Naftali Bennett 3% Amir Ohana <1% Yair Lapid <1% Benny Gantz <1% Yossi Cohen <1% Yair Golan <1% Itamar Ben Gvir <1% Gideon Sa’ar <1% Yariv Levin <1% Yoaz Hendel <1% Israel Katz <1% Gilad Erdan <1% Aviv Kohavi <1% Eli Cohen <1% Moshe Feiglin <1% Ayelet Shaked <1% Nir Barkat <1% Ofer Winter <1% Daniel Hagari <1% Luca Niculescu >99% ▲ 5 Mugur Isărescu <1% Mircea Geoană <1% 35 more Anca Dragu <1% Lucian Isar <1% Cătălin Predoiu <1% Sorin Grindeanu <1% George Simion <1% Ilie Bolojan <1% Marcel Ciolacu <1% Alexandru Rafila <1% Sebastian Burduja <1% Ionuț Dumitru <1% Elena Lasconi <1% Cătălin Drulă <1% Vasile Dîncu <1% Dacian Cioloș <1% Emil Boc <1% Dominic Fritz <1% Raluca Turcan <1% Lucian Croitoru <1% Delia Velculescu <1% Nicolae Ciucă <1% Hunor Kelemen <1% Calin Georgescu <1% Radu Burnete <1% Șerban Matei <1% Alexandru Nazare <1% Alexandru Rogobete <1% Dragoș Pîslaru <1% Traian Basescu <1% Dan Motreanu <1% Victor Ponta <1% Ciprian Ciucu <1% Eugen Tomac <1% Siegfried Mureșan <1% Adrian Veștea <1% Leonardo Badea <1% November 30, 2026 99% December 31, 2026 >99% March 31, 2027 >99% Lula, Eizenkot, Dems 58% ▲ 3 Lula, Netanyahu, Dems 19% ▲ 5 Lula, Bennett, Dems 1% ▲ 1 9 more Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Reps <1% ▼ 11 Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Reps <1% ▼ 11 Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Dems <1% ▼ 12 Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems <1% ▼ 41 Bolsonaro, Bennett, Dems <1% ▼ 3 Bolsonaro, Bennett, Reps <1% Lula, Eizenkot, Reps <1% ▼ 5 Lula, Netanyahu, Reps <1% ▼ 5 Lula, Bennett, Reps <1% ▼ 7 Chiang Wan-an 67% ▲ 1 Puma Shen 34% Kuo Hsi <1% Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Trading closes Jun 6, 2027 11:59 PM ET
Traded $12.3K
This week $549
At stake $3.1K
Followed here since Oct 19, 2026
The rules Legislative elections to elect the 35 members of the Congress of the State of Campeche are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of Campeche as a result of this election. Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party's list in the proportional representation vote, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This marke
The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket .
A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use . How to use Predictions