Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
November 8
16%
▼ 1
15¢
16¢
$6.25
$19K
November 15
45%
▲ 3
44¢
45¢
$2.22
$124K
November 22
59%
▲ 9
58¢
60¢
$1.67
$126K
November 30
65%
▲ 9
64¢
65¢
$1.54
$1K
December 31
80%
79¢
80¢
$1.25
$70K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
France accuses Iran of supermarket fridge hackingBBC News · 11 h agoFrance has accused Iran of being behind cyber-attacks that affected supermarket fridges and freezers. Speaking at a news conference, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said the attack was carried out by the Islamic Revolutionary…
Tanker ENGULFED IN FLAMES after Iranian attacksFox News · 12 h agoDramatic video captures a tanker set abalze near Oman, sending a massive plume of black smoke into the sky. The IRGC claims it struck three tankers Sunday, accusing them of traveling through 'unauthorized routes' in the Strait of Hormuz…
Marco Rubio defends Trump's Iran actionFox News · 28 h agoSecretary of State Marco Rubio defended President Donald Trump's actions against Iran on Sunday, arguing he confronted a national security threat that previous presidents failed to address. Marco Rubio defends Trump's Iran action Secretary…
Trump signals Iran breakthrough as Tehran issues 48-hour ultimatumFox Business · 10 h agoNational security strategy takes center stage as President Donald Trump scales back his warnings regarding renewed military strikes on Iran. Stuart Varney and Will Thibeau discuss the geopolitical implications of Pete Hegseth calling for…
Iran conflict intensifies in Strait of HormuzFox News · 30 h ago'The Sunday Panel' breaks down midterm elections, Trump's new appointment in the WH and the ongoing tensions in Iran. Iran conflict intensifies in Strait of Hormuz 'The Sunday Panel' breaks down midterm elections, Trump's new appointment…
Trump, Iran and legacy: RANE on what comes nextCNBC · 22 h agoRyan Bohl, Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at Rane, discusses why Trump is unlikely to back down on the Iran War, even as he faces added pressure from the Democrats following the U.S. midterms. He also talks about the wild card…
Hegseth impeachment effort begins in House, focused on Iran warThe Washington Post · 8 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Republican Rep. Thomas…
CENTCOM launches Iran-based land blockade task forceFox News · 30 h agoRet. U.S. Navy Capt. Brent Sadler discusses the war in Iran after U.S. forces strike a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Fox News chief foreign correspondent Trey Yingst reports on developments in the Middle East on 'Fox Report.' CENTCOM…
France accuses Iran’s Revolutionary Guards of hacking supermarket refrigeratorsNBC News · 9 h agoFrench Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot on Monday accused Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corp of being behind a recent cyberattack on French supermarket fridges, saying there would be consequences for the Islamic Republic. Meanwhile…
CENTCOM targets Iran's land supply routes as diplomatic efforts continueFox News · 9 h agoRetired U.S. Army Lt. Col. Darin Gaub discusses President Donald Trump's options in Iran as negotiations continue and U.S. forces expand efforts to disrupt Iranian weapons shipments. CENTCOM targets Iran's land supply routes as diplomatic…
Rubio defends Trump's Iran war as not 'necessarily popular, but necessary'Fox News · 15 h agoSecretary of State Marco Rubio defended President Donald Trump's actions against Iran on Sunday, arguing he confronted a national security threat that previous presidents failed to address. Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended President…
Trump, Vance set to meet with Iran negotiations mediator in DCNew York Post · 11 h agoUS President Donald Trump will meet the prime minister of key mediator Qatar on Monday as efforts to end the Iran war ramp up following last week’s midterm elections, though senior US and Gulf officials cast doubt on the chances of an…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions