Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
March 31
<1%
0¢
$7.8M
April 15
<1%
0¢
$8.4M
April 30
<1%
0¢
$17.4M
May 31
<1%
0¢
$11.2M
June 24
<1%
0¢
$1.1M
June 30
<1%
0¢
$13.5M
July 31
<1%
0¢
$6.3M
August 31
<1%
0¢
$5.9M
September 30
<1%
0¢
$3M
October 31
<1%
0¢
$1.6M
December 31
3%
▼ 1
3¢
4¢
$27.78
$1.4M
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The key is Kharg Island: Optimizing Trump’s plan to ‘rot’ Iran’s economyWorldNetDaily · 4 days agoBy Brian G. Chow, Real Clear Wire This approach offers distinct operational advantages for the White House: This step-by-step target framework seamlessly reinforces the core principles of an effective Iran strategy outlined in my previous…
Why Were Iranian-Linked Ships Lingering Over The World’s Undersea Internet CablesAmerican Partisan · 3 days agoBrent futures remain below $100 a barrel in early New York trading as diplomatic signals continue to emerge. Markets are betting that the Democratic sweep has raised the odds of a near-term peace deal, which was enough to wipe out Brent’s…
Trump’s Iran Strategy Reaches a Critical Crossroads After Midterm DefeatOilPrice.com · 3 days agoEurope's Grid Spending Is Up 155% Since 2019 The small-scale raids have targeted… Washington faces a strategic dilemma,… President Donald Trump spent the final weeks of the US midterm campaign predicting that the war with Iran would end…
War, Deal, Or Stalemate? What The Midterms Mean For Trump’s Iran War – AnalysisEurasia Review · 4 days agoBy Kian Sharifi and RFE/RL’s Radio Farda President Donald Trump spent the final weeks of the US midterm campaign predicting that the war with Iran would end “right after the election.” With the votes now in and his Republican Party reeling…
War, Deal, Or Stalemate? What The Midterms Mean For Trump's Iran WarRadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty · 4 days agoPresident Donald Trump spent the final weeks of the US midterm campaign predicting that the war with Iran would end "right after the election." With the votes now in and his Republican Party reeling from losing both chambers of Congress in…
Trump crashed on his own shores of discontent, but the blue wave doesn’t deliver certaintyThe Sydney Morning Herald · 4 days agoNovember 6, 2026 — 5:00am Wave. Deluge. Tsunami. At some point, we might have to abandon the nautical metaphors because they can’t quite capture the scale of what’s happening. It’s true the Trump administration got swamped this week…
Iran’s Crude Loadings Stall: What Six Quiet Weeks Mean for Oil PricesCMB News · 5 days agoEditorial market observer for global agricultural commodities — daily analysis from Hamburg on grains, oilseeds, sugar, coffee and other commodities. Iran’s Crude Loadings Stall: What Six Quiet Weeks Mean for Oil Prices Visible Iranian…
Visible Crude Loadings Halt, Iran’s Empty Tankers Remain Idle Since SeptemberMarineLink · 6 days agoIran-linked tankers in the Middle East Gulf and beyond, October 28, 2026, showing spare capacity inside the Gulf, the six-week gap in AIS-reported loadings, and the near-empty floating storage outside it. Source: Windward Maritime AI…
US-Iran talks end without dealRT International · 7 days agoThe latest round of indirect US-Iran talks has ended without a deal, raising fears that renewed American strikes could trigger a wider Middle East war. The United States and Israel launched a military campaign against Iran in late…
Trump ‘checks in’ with Netanyahu amid fears of renewed hostilities – WSJGlobal Village Space · 9 days agoUS President Donald Trump spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday morning, checking in amid preparations for possible strikes on Iran, the Wall Street Journal has reported, citing people familiar with the…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions