Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
March 31
<1%
0¢
$33K
April 30
<1%
0¢
$1.7M
May 31
<1%
0¢
$1.3M
June 15
<1%
0¢
$221K
June 22
<1%
0¢
$129K
June 30
<1%
0¢
$1.2M
July 31
<1%
0¢
$1.4M
August 31
<1%
0¢
$2.6M
September 15
<1%
0¢
$831K
September 30
<1%
0¢
$4.2M
October 31
<1%
0¢
$1.8M
November 30
4%
3¢
4¢
$25.64
$199K
December 31
8%
▼ 1
7¢
9¢
$11.11
$2.1M
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
China urges opening Bab al-Mandeb in first joint statement with regional nationThe Star · 15 days agoIn its first formal statement with a Red Sea nation on the fallout from the US-Iran war, China said in a joint communique with Djibouti that it backs “constructive efforts” to ensure international shipping lanes are safe and open. The…
Eight Regional, European Countries Call For Dialogue To Resolve ConflictsETV Bharat News · 17 days agoPublished : October 24, 2026 at 9:01 PM IST Islamabad: Eight regional and European countries called for dialogue and diplomacy to resolve conflicts, including the US-Iran hostilities and the Israel-Palestine issue, according to a joint…
Ethiopia Calls for Shared Red Sea SecurityThe Rio Times · 17 days agoETHIOPIA · RED SEA SECURITY Ethiopia’s intelligence chief says no handful of countries can keep the Red Sea safe alone. He spoke on Friday, 23 October, as a regional security forum opened in Bahir Dar. Ethiopia called for shared Red Sea…
Yemen: 25 killed, 30 injured in missile attack on military campIndia Tribune - Chicago - · 16 days agoAden (Yemen), Oct 19 (IANS) At least 25 soldiers were killed and more than 30 others injured on Monday after three missiles struck a government military training base in Yemen's southeastern province of Shabwa, a government military…
Oil Prices Fall From Six-Month High as Iran Talks Ease Supply FearsCoinCentral · 15 days agoOil prices fell on Monday as diplomatic efforts eased fears of further supply disruptions. Brent crude futures for December dropped 2% to $114.39 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 2.3% to $100.88. Both benchmarks had climbed…
Houthis Target 4 Saudi Airports and Yanbu After Sanaa RaidsHouse of Saud · 16 days agoYahya Saree announced on Telegram that Ansar Allah had “carried out seven military operations using ballistic missiles and drones” against Saudi oil facilities and airports, according to Apa.az and France 24. The claimed targets spanned…
China Uses Djibouti Outpost to Assert Itself on Houthi AttacksBreitbart · 17 days agoChina and Djibouti released a joint communique on Thursday supporting freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which are currently under threat from the Iran-backed Houthi insurgents of Yemen. The statement was issued…
Syrian Govt Accuses ‘Outlaw Groups’ of Blocking Sweida-Damascus Highwayالشرق الأوسط · 16 days agoThe "outlaw groups", affiliated with Druze spiritual leader Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri reportedly blocked around 100 employees from reaching their workplaces in northern Sweida on Wednesday and had previously prevented students from travelling…
Britain Deploys Royal Air Force to Support Saudi Monarchy Against Yemeni ResistanceGlobal Research · 17 days agoPrime Minister Andy Burham says the fighter jets are only there for “defensive purposes” while the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is facing monumental defeats against the Ansur Allah As the Yemeni resistance movement, the Ansur Allah, carries on…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions