Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Polymarket Politics › Trump administration Closes Dec 31 · $99.7K today · $1.5M traded · $716K at stake · prices read 6 days ago

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The odds

>99%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 99% on Oct 20, >99% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Yes >99% 100¢ 100¢ $1.5M

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Midterm

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  • Midterm Election Day FAQsCBS News · 7 days agoCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Midterm Election Day FAQs…
  • Can Trumpism Survive the Midterms?CBS News · 7 days agoKevin Williamson, National Correspondent for The Dispatch, on how deep-red states became midterm battlegrounds and what that could mean for the future of MAGA and the GOP. If you'd like to share your own great question, email us at…
  • 2026 Oregon Midterm Election ResultsAP News · 7 days agoAP News AP’s guide to this state When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics journalists simply tell you…
  • Hear this MAGA voter's midterm worriesCNN · 7 days agoCNN Hear this MAGA voter’s midterm worries John King traveled to 5 states in 5 days ahead of the midterms where he spoke to a MAGA voter in Pennsylvania about his concerns ahead of the election and beyond.
  • Just hours until critical midterm electionsNBC News · 7 days agoNBC News NBC News producer shares personal journey battling Alzheimer’s Co-pilot and passengers killed in learjet crash identified Good News: 20-year-old finishes New York City Marathon after a car accident left her paralyzed Dangerous…
  • Voters making final decisions in midterm electionsNBC News · 7 days agoNBC News NBC News producer shares personal journey battling Alzheimer’s Co-pilot and passengers killed in learjet crash identified Good News: 20-year-old finishes New York City Marathon after a car accident left her paralyzed Dangerous…
  • Republicans Can Blame Trump for Their Midterm WoesPOLITICO · 7 days agoTariffs, a costly war and political vendettas have left Republicans scrambling to defend their congressional majorities. President Donald Trump owns this upcoming defeat, the author writes. | Francis Chung/POLITICO Jonathan Martin is…
  • 10 House Races That Will Decide the MidtermsNewsweek · 7 days agoNov 02, 2026 at 08:00 AM EST Nov 02, 2026 at 01:29 PM EST With Election Day just hours away, Newsweek has identified 10 House races featuring vulnerable incumbents, returning challengers and contrasting electorates that could reveal both…
  • US strikes Iran ahead of midterm electionsBBC News · 7 days agoThe US has launched strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, US officials have told CBS, the BBC's US partner. Iranian state news agency IRNA reported several explosions on the island on Monday. The US officials described…
  • How high inflation impacts midterm electionsCNBC · 8 days agoCNBC How high inflation impacts midterm elections
  • College students are unusually energized for the midtermsCBS News · 7 days agoCBS News College students are unusually energized for the midterms Fables & Flames, a romantasy book convention with a fantasy ball and mermaid pool party, returns 2 arrested on suspicion of murder in the disappearance of "SNL" writer…
  • What's at stake in the 2026 midterm election?CBS News · 7 days agoCBS News What's at stake in the 2026 midterm election? Lindsay Clancy set to stand trial for second time for the murders of her 3 children Woman fatally struck by SEPTA trolley in West Philadelphia Cape May Brewing collabs with Asher's…

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

36%Pete Hegseth
  • Pete Hegseth36%▼ 6
  • Will Scharf30%▼ 11
  • Amy Gleason28%▼ 5
37 more
  • Stanley Woodward28%▼ 6
  • Trent McCotter28%▼ 10
  • Howard Lutnick26%▲ 6
  • Christopher Landau26%▼ 1
  • Kash Patel22%▼ 2
  • Doug Collins21%▲ 1
  • Brad Cooper19%▼ 1
  • Dan Caine19%▼ 3
  • Kevin Hassett19%▲ 3
  • Linda McMahon18%▼ 2
  • Steven Cheung18%▼ 14
  • Peter Navarro17%▼ 2
  • Sergio Gor17%▼ 8
  • Brooke Rollins16%▼ 1
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.14%▼ 1
  • Marco Rubio14%▼ 1
  • Chris Wright14%
  • Doug Burgum14%
  • John Ratcliffe14%
  • Jamieson Greer13%▲ 2
  • Steve Witkoff13%▼ 5
  • Bill Pulte13%▼ 1
  • Scott Turner13%▲ 1
  • Kelly Loeffler13%▼ 6
  • Joe Gebbia13%▲ 2
  • Mehmet Oz12%▼ 2
  • Tom Homan11%▲ 1
  • Mike Huckabee11%▼ 1
  • Todd Blanche11%▼ 6
  • Rodney Scott10%
  • Sean Duffy10%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz10%▼ 8
  • Russell Vought8%
  • Scott Bessent8%
  • Lee Zeldin8%
  • Tilman Fertitta7%
  • Brendan Carr5%▼ 1

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

99%Susie Wiles
  • Susie Wiles99%▲ 75
  • None before 2027<1%▼ 17
  • J.D. Vance<1%▼ 1
18 more
  • Marco Rubio<1%▼ 17
  • Scott Bessent<1%▼ 2
  • Pete Hegseth<1%▼ 33
  • Doug Burgum<1%▼ 2
  • Brooke Rollins<1%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick<1%▼ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%▼ 3
  • Scott Turner<1%
  • Sean Duffy<1%
  • Chris Wright<1%▼ 1
  • Linda McMahon<1%
  • Doug Collins<1%
  • Lee Zeldin<1%▼ 1
  • Russell T. Vought<1%
  • John Ratcliffe<1%
  • Jamieson Greer<1%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz<1%▼ 2
  • Kelly Loeffler<1%▼ 1

Next Press Secretary?

14%Anna Kelly
  • Anna Kelly14%▲ 2
  • Monica Crowley4%
  • Harrison Fields3%
30 more
  • Taylor Rogers3%
  • Margo Martin3%▼ 2
  • Beni Rae Harmony3%
  • Maria Bartiromo3%
  • Natalie Harp2%
  • Katie Miller2%
  • Tricia McLaughlin2%
  • Elizabeth Pipko2%▲ 1
  • Rachel Campos-Duffy2%
  • Scott Jennings2%▼ 5
  • Liz Huston2%
  • Spencer Pratt2%
  • Kayleigh McEnany2%▼ 1
  • Karoline Leavitt2%▼ 1
  • Hogan Gidley2%
  • Lauren Bis2%
  • Alina Habba2%
  • Nicki Minaj2%
  • Lara Trump1%
  • Laura Loomer1%
  • Katie Pavlich1%
  • Dana White1%▼ 1
  • Kari Lake1%▼ 1
  • Jake Paul1%
  • Pat Adams1%
  • Kaelan Dorr<1%
  • Matthew Boyle<1%
  • Kush Desai<1%
  • Steven Cheung<1%
  • Ari Fleischer<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions