Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
February 28, 2026
<1%
0¢
$12.6K
March 31, 2026
<1%
▼ 4
0¢
$275K
June 30, 2026
<1%
▼ 1
0¢
$486K
December 31, 2026
5%
▼ 1
4¢
5¢
$20.00
$1.8M
November 30
<1%
0¢
$173K
December 31
<1%
0¢
$1.1M
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Israeli Navy conducts drill exercise near Gaza border, IDF announcesNew York Post · 6 days ago(Nov. 3, 2026 / JNS) The Israel Defense Forces on Monday night announced an Israeli Navy exercise in the Zikim Beach area, located near the Gaza border. The exercise will begin on Tuesday morning and is set to conclude at midday on…
Hamas member among 4 killed in Israeli strikes: Gaza officials@arabnews · 6 days agoGAZA CITY: Gaza’s health and security officials said on Tuesday that Israeli strikes killed at least four people in the Palestinian territory, including a member of Hamas’s security service and a teenage girl. Nasser Hospital in Gaza said…
Israeli officials say elections will stand after Netanyahu claimed Arabs stole votePOLITICO · 7 days agoNetanyahu has cast doubt on the validity of the election in which his coalition lost its majority. Police stand watch as supporters of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu counter-protest against a rally calling for the formation of a…
Netanyahu vows ‘revenge’ after Israel says Hamas sent back wrong body for Shiri BibasAkamai Daily News · 7 days ago(LONDON) — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed “revenge” on Friday after the Israeli military said one of the four bodies recently released by Hamas did not include a hostage. Hamas, the militant group that governs the war-torn…
Israeli strikes in Gaza kill eight including child, hospitals sayBBC News · 8 days agoMourners attend the funeral of five Palestinians, who were killed in an Israeli strike. Israeli strikes in Gaza have killed at least eight people, including a child, according to hospitals, despite a year-old ceasefire. In Gaza City to the…
Israel hopes third Iran war will differ from Gaza conflict with HamasThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 7 days agoMany Israelis expect a third round of war between the US, Israel, and Iran (and whoever else in the region Tehran pulls in). The next question many have is: will this really be the last battle or just another "round" in a series of new…
Widow slams false Hamas claim against Gaza journalist@canberratimes · 7 days agoThe widow of a Gaza journalist, who was contracted by Australia's national broadcaster, has hit out against Liberal senator Sarah Henderson for alleging he was a Hamas militant. Shrouq Aila, an award-winning journalist herself, condemned…
Israeli army kills Hamas commanders in the Gaza StripIsrael Today · 9 days agoOne of the killed terrorists was involved in the captivity of numerous Israeli hostages, including Noa Argamani and Emily Hand, according to the army. The Israeli army has killed two Hamas commanders in an airstrike in the central Gaza…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions