Pete Hegseth impeached by...?

Polymarket Politics Closes Dec 31 · $105K today · $536K traded · $178K at stake · prices read 2 min ago

The odds

81%December 31, 2026

December 31, 202681%▲ 9
March 31, 202785%▲ 7
June 30, 202788%▲ 8

How the odds have moved

December 31, 2026: 72% on Nov 9, 81% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
June 30, 2026	<1%			0¢		$17K
December 31, 2026	81%	▲ 9	81¢	82¢	$1.23	$311K
March 31, 2027	85%	▲ 7	84¢	85¢	$1.18	$35.6K
June 30, 2027	88%	▲ 8	87¢	89¢	$1.12	$20.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: impeachment, Pete Hegseth

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Could Pete Hegseth be impeached?CBS News · 26 h agoCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Could Pete…
Congress-Bound Admiral Fired by Pete Hegseth Weighs In on Impeaching HimNewsweek · 28 h agoNov 08, 2026 at 01:36 PM EST Democratic Representative-elect Nancy Lacore, the retired Navy admiral fired by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth last year, said there were “probably plenty” when asked about impeachable offenses involving the…
Hakeem Jeffries supports impeachment of Pete Hegseth: ‘He has got to go’the Guardian · 33 h agoHouse Democrat is a ‘hard yes’ on impeachment resolution against defense secretary who ‘has abused his power’ House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries, poised to become majority leader, said on Sunday that he strongly supports impeaching…
Top House Democrat says he’s a ‘hard yes’ on Pete Hegseth impeachmentThe Washington Post · 36 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. “Pete Hegseth has got…
Hakeem Jeffries supports impeaching Pete Hegseth, and a deadly mass shooting in Poland: Weekend RundownNBC News · 29 h agoHouse Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., said he supports impeachment efforts against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, which are expected to be brought to a vote this week. Asked in an interview on ABC’s “This Week” whether he would…
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries says he is a ‘hard yes’ on impeaching Defense Secretary Pete HegsethNBC News · 33 h agoHouse Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., said he is a “hard yes” on supporting impeachment efforts against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, which are expected to be brought to a vote this week. Asked in an interview on ABC’s “This…
GOP Rep. French Hill says "I want to hear the debate" on impeaching Pete HegsethCBS News · 35 h agoAs outgoing Rep. Thomas Massie plans to force a vote on impeaching Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Republican Rep. French Hill said he "I want to hear the debate on it to see if it merits impeachment versus some other disciplinary action…
Hakeem Jeffries accuses Pete Hegseth of abusing his powerFox News · 30 h agoFox News correspondent Alex Hogan reports on House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ criticism of War Secretary Pete Hegseth amid Democrats’ calls for impeachment on ‘Fox Report.’ ... Hakeem Jeffries accuses Pete Hegseth of abusing his…
John Oliver Unleashes On Pete Hegseth On 'Last Week Tonight'Deadline · 22 h agoWhile John Oliver opened his show by relishing the victories (and the defeats) attendant to Tuesday’s midterm elections, he quickly turned the full force of his weekly withering analysis on Pete Hegseth. Noting that the Secretary of War…
Bipartisan backlash against War Secretary Pete Hegseth rises as impeachment vote loomsFox News · 3 days agoFox News chief congressional correspondent Chad Pergram has the latest on an upcoming impeachment vote targeting Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, led by Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., on 'Special Report.' ... Bipartisan backlash against War…
Rep.-elect Nancy Lacore says she was "never given a reason" why Pete Hegseth fired herCBS News · 35 h agoRep.-elect Nancy Lacore told "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" that she was "never given a reason" why Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth fired her as a chief of the Navy Reserve, but she added that "at this point, it doesn't really…
Pressure Mounts on Pete Hegseth Ahead of Impeachment Push Over IranNewsweek · 3 days agoNov 06, 2026 at 01:41 PM EST Pressure is mounting on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth from both sides of the political aisle, with Republican Representative Thomas Massie preparing to force a House impeachment vote as soon as next week and…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$536K

Today$105K

This week$353K

At stake$178K

In the news456 headlines today, 1,488 this week

Followed here sinceNov 8, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United State

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions