Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

Polymarket World Closes Jun 30, 2027 · $25K traded · $11.5K at stake · prices read 23 min ago

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The odds

32%Rebeca Grynspan
  • Rebeca Grynspan32%▲ 8
  • Rafael Grossi14%
  • Olara Otunnu11%
  • María Fernanda Espinosa7%
  • Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett5%
  • Macky Sall2%
  • Michelle Bachelet1%
  • Ivonne de Baki<1%

How the odds have moved

Rebeca Grynspan: 28% on Oct 20, 32% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 9, 8 PM ETRebeca Grynspan: 25% → 32%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  2. Oct 29, 11 PM ETRebeca Grynspan: 11% → 21%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Rebeca Grynspan 32% ▲ 8 24¢ 39¢ $2.56 $40.2K
Rafael Grossi 14% 10¢ 19¢ $5.29 $39.6K
Olara Otunnu 11% 1¢ 20¢ $5.03 $3.5K
María Fernanda Espinosa 7% 5¢ 9¢ $11.63 $12.4K
Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett 5% 4¢ 6¢ $16.13 $6.9K
Macky Sall 2% 1¢ 3¢ $38.46 $132K
Michelle Bachelet 1% 0¢ 2¢ $41.67 $12.5K
Ivonne de Baki <1% 0¢ 0¢ $2.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: United Nations, Secretary-General, Rebeca Grynspan

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions