Predictions › Elections › Around the world Morena 89% PAN 5% PRI 3% MC 2% PVEM <1% PT <1%
Morena: 87% on Oct 20, 89% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Course correction needed for New Mexico universal childcare fund, legislative economist says Yahoo News · 19 days ago The New Mexico Legislature's chief economist told lawmakers this week that without adjustments, New Mexico's early childhood trust fund will be unable to support the state's new universal childcare program by 2048. The state created the… Fact Check: John Block Sends Attack Letter: Relies on Insinuations and Falsehoods While Ignoring His Own Record of Division and Limited Results @AlamogordoN · 20 days ago It contrasts this with Block’s assertion that he has delivered more than $11 million, kept promises on veterans and military families, and fought taxes and the shuttering of an ICE facility. A review of New Mexico legislative records… New Mexico lacks clear standards for how state agencies should conduct internal audits, report finds Source New Mexico · 20 days ago New Mexico Legislative Finance Committee Program Evaluator Guillermo Caraveo, left, and LFC Deputy Director Rachel Mercer Garcia, right, deliver a report to state lawmakers on Oct. 20, 2026, about New Mexico’s lack of clear standards for… Mexico Proposes ISP Liability Reform for Copyright Infringement Mexico Business · 21 days ago A reform to the Federal Copyright Law, colloquially known as an “anti-meme law,” is advancing through the Mexican legislative process. The text of the reform, proposed by the Mexican president, seeks to change the “safe harbor” provisions… Marine Le Pen 45% David Lisnard 14% ▼ 1 Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13% 43 more Édouard Philippe 9% ▲ 1 Christine Lagarde 6% ▼ 1 Teddy Riner 3% Raphaël Glucksmann 2% Jordan Bardella 2% Dominique de Villepin 2% François Hollande 2% Bruno Retailleau 1% Gabriel Attal <1% Éric Zemmour <1% Sarah Knafo <1% Sébastien Lecornu <1% François Baroin <1% Xavier Bertrand <1% Laurent Wauquiez <1% François Ruffin <1% Marine Tondelier <1% Fabien Roussel <1% Olivier Faure <1% Ségolène Royal <1% François Asselineau <1% Clémentine Autain <1% Nicolas Dupont-Aignan <1% Michel Barnier <1% Valérie Pécresse <1% François Bayrou <1% Élisabeth Borne <1% Yaël Braun-Pivet <1% Jean Castex <1% Gérald Darmanin <1% Carole Delga <1% Bernard Cazeneuve <1% Manuel Bompard <1% Mathilde Panot <1% Juan Branco <1% Clémence Guetté <1% Karim Bouamrane <1% Lucie Castets <1% Yannick Jadot <1% Marion Maréchal <1% Natacha Polony <1% Anasse Kazib <1% Sylvain Durif <1% Gadi Eizenkot 64% ▼ 1 Benjamin Netanyahu 24% ▲ 3 Avigdor Lieberman 6% ▼ 1 19 more Naftali Bennett 3% Amir Ohana <1% Yair Lapid <1% Benny Gantz <1% Yossi Cohen <1% Yair Golan <1% Itamar Ben Gvir <1% Gideon Sa’ar <1% Yariv Levin <1% Yoaz Hendel <1% Israel Katz <1% Gilad Erdan <1% Aviv Kohavi <1% Eli Cohen <1% Moshe Feiglin <1% Ayelet Shaked <1% Nir Barkat <1% Ofer Winter <1% Daniel Hagari <1% Luca Niculescu >99% ▲ 5 Mugur Isărescu <1% Mircea Geoană <1% 35 more Anca Dragu <1% Lucian Isar <1% Cătălin Predoiu <1% Sorin Grindeanu <1% George Simion <1% Ilie Bolojan <1% Marcel Ciolacu <1% Alexandru Rafila <1% Sebastian Burduja <1% Ionuț Dumitru <1% Elena Lasconi <1% Cătălin Drulă <1% Vasile Dîncu <1% Dacian Cioloș <1% Emil Boc <1% Dominic Fritz <1% Raluca Turcan <1% Lucian Croitoru <1% Delia Velculescu <1% Nicolae Ciucă <1% Hunor Kelemen <1% Calin Georgescu <1% Radu Burnete <1% Șerban Matei <1% Alexandru Nazare <1% Alexandru Rogobete <1% Dragoș Pîslaru <1% Traian Basescu <1% Dan Motreanu <1% Victor Ponta <1% Ciprian Ciucu <1% Eugen Tomac <1% Siegfried Mureșan <1% Adrian Veștea <1% Leonardo Badea <1% November 30, 2026 99% December 31, 2026 >99% March 31, 2027 >99% Lula, Eizenkot, Dems 57% ▼ 7 Lula, Netanyahu, Dems 19% ▲ 5 Lula, Bennett, Dems 1% ▲ 1 9 more Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Reps <1% ▼ 11 Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Reps <1% ▼ 11 Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Dems <1% ▼ 12 Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems <1% ▼ 41 Bolsonaro, Bennett, Dems <1% ▼ 3 Bolsonaro, Bennett, Reps <1% Lula, Eizenkot, Reps <1% ▼ 5 Lula, Netanyahu, Reps <1% ▼ 5 Lula, Bennett, Reps <1% ▼ 7 National Party 98% Labour Party 2% Green Party <1% 3 more ACT New Zealand <1% New Zealand First Party <1% Te Pāti Māori <1% Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Trading closes Jun 6, 2027 11:59 PM ET
Traded $117K
Today $83
This week $1.2K
At stake $14.1K
Followed here since Oct 19, 2026
The rules A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alp
The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket .
A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use . How to use Predictions