Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closes Apr 18, 2027 · $2.9K today · $544K traded · $212K at stake · prices read 23 min ago

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The odds

91%Marine Le Pen
  • Marine Le Pen91%▲ 1
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon52%▲ 1
  • David Lisnard17%▼ 1
  • Édouard Philippe16%
  • Jordan Bardella8%
  • Raphaël Glucksmann7%
  • Gabriel Attal5%
  • Bruno Retailleau5%
  • François Hollande4%
  • Manuel Bompard4%
  • Clémence Guetté4%▼ 1
  • Bernard Cazeneuve4%
24 more
  • Sarah Knafo4%
  • Xavier Bertrand3%
  • Fabien Roussel3%
  • Laurent Wauquiez3%▼ 1
  • Sébastien Lecornu3%
  • François Ruffin3%▼ 1
  • François Bayrou3%
  • Juan Branco3%▼ 1
  • Gérald Darmanin3%
  • Marine Tondelier3%▼ 1
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%▼ 1
  • Yaël Braun-Pivet3%
  • Valérie Pécresse2%▲ 1
  • Élisabeth Borne2%
  • Michel Barnier2%
  • Clémentine Autain2%▼ 1
  • Jean Castex2%
  • Olivier Faure2%▼ 1
  • Ségolène Royal2%
  • François Asselineau2%
  • Mathilde Panot2%▼ 1
  • Éric Zemmour2%▼ 1
  • Carole Delga2%
  • Dominique de Villepin1%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Marine Le Pen: 90% on Oct 20, 91% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Marine Le Pen 91% ▲ 1 90¢ 91¢ $1.10 $32.9K
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 52% ▲ 1 51¢ 52¢ $1.92 $36.2K
David Lisnard 17% ▼ 1 17¢ 17¢ $5.85 $246K
Édouard Philippe 16% 15¢ 16¢ $6.25 $17.1K
Jordan Bardella 8% 7¢ 9¢ $11.11 $25K
Raphaël Glucksmann 7% 6¢ 8¢ $12.35 $17.1K
Gabriel Attal 5% 5¢ 6¢ $16.67 $9.4K
Bruno Retailleau 5% 4¢ 5¢ $18.87 $4.4K
François Hollande 4% 4¢ 5¢ $20.41 $20.7K
Manuel Bompard 4% 4¢ 5¢ $22.22 $7.3K
Clémence Guetté 4% ▼ 1 3¢ 5¢ $21.74 $3.9K
Bernard Cazeneuve 4% 3¢ 4¢ $25.00 $5.8K
Sarah Knafo 4% 2¢ 5¢ $21.74 $8.2K
Xavier Bertrand 3% 2¢ 5¢ $22.22 $2.9K
Fabien Roussel 3% 3¢ 4¢ $26.32 $8.4K
Laurent Wauquiez 3% ▼ 1 1¢ 5¢ $20.41 $1.8K
Sébastien Lecornu 3% 2¢ 4¢ $27.03 $3.8K
François Ruffin 3% ▼ 1 2¢ 4¢ $28.57 $9.6K
François Bayrou 3% 2¢ 3¢ $29.41 $4.4K
Juan Branco 3% ▼ 1 1¢ 4¢ $23.26 $5.9K
Gérald Darmanin 3% 2¢ 4¢ $28.57 $2.8K
Marine Tondelier 3% ▼ 1 1¢ 4¢ $24.39 $5.5K
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 3% ▼ 1 2¢ 4¢ $28.57 $2.2K
Yaël Braun-Pivet 3% 2¢ 4¢ $28.57 $4.8K
Valérie Pécresse 2% ▲ 1 1¢ 4¢ $27.03 $3.3K
Élisabeth Borne 2% 2¢ 3¢ $30.30 $7.4K
Michel Barnier 2% 1¢ 3¢ $32.26 $3.5K
Clémentine Autain 2% ▼ 1 1¢ 3¢ $33.33 $6.2K
Jean Castex 2% 1¢ 4¢ $28.57 $3.4K
Olivier Faure 2% ▼ 1 1¢ 3¢ $29.41 $6.2K
Ségolène Royal 2% 1¢ 4¢ $28.57 $6.5K
François Asselineau 2% 2¢ 2¢ $41.67 $2.8K
Mathilde Panot 2% ▼ 1 1¢ 3¢ $33.33 $1.9K
Éric Zemmour 2% ▼ 1 1¢ 2¢ $41.67 $1.3K
Carole Delga 2% 1¢ 2¢ $55.56 $11.4K
Dominique de Villepin 1% ▼ 1 1¢ 2¢ $62.50 $3.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: French Presidential, Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

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