Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
August 15
<1%
▼ 1
0¢
$369K
August 31
<1%
0¢
$366K
September 15
<1%
0¢
$28K
September 30
<1%
▼ 1
0¢
$446K
October 7
<1%
0¢
$60.2K
October 15
<1%
0¢
$15K
October 31
<1%
▼ 2
1¢
$45K
November 2
1%
▼ 2
2¢
$50.00
$461K
November 30
14%
▲ 1
14¢
15¢
$6.67
$796K
December 31
35%
34¢
35¢
$2.86
$69K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Iran war advocates own this debacleWashington Examiner · 4 days agoWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
A Hormuz deal leaves Iran its uraniumWashington Examiner · 4 days agoWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
Renewed US-Iran war fears drive oil prices highersemafor.com · 4 days agoUS President Donald Trump spoke with the emir of Qatar, which has sought to mediate a truce, but Washington and Tehran have also traded heated rhetoric. Oil prices briefly neared $100 a barrel following a days-long selloff on revived…
Uncertainty persists over Trump’s next move on Iransemafor.com · 4 days agoThe world is watching with bated breath for President Donald Trump’s next move on Iran following a stunning GOP midterms loss. The loss is a “validation” of Iran’s strategy to make Trump feel “pain” and “embarrassment” from the war, said…
Vance fuels 2028 speculation with midterm Iran war remarksFox News · 4 days agoFox News Vance fuels 2028 speculation with midterm Iran war remarks Former National Republican Senatorial Committee senior adviser Matt Whitlock joins ‘The Story’ to break down Vice President JD Vance’s remarks on the Iran war, the…
Major construction ongoing near Iran missile bases, satellite images suggestBBC News · 4 days agoIran appears to be undertaking significant new construction near at least two of its major missile sites and repairing bases damaged by months of US and Israeli air strikes, analysis of satellite images suggests. The excavations near…
Sen. Bill Cassidy on Hegseth and Iran War | CNN PoliticsCNN · 4 days agoOutgoing GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) tells CNN's Kaitlan Collins that he will weigh the facts when it comes to a potential impeachment of Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth posted a defiant video on…
JD Vance blames Iran, but Ohio voters saw something far uglierThe Washington Post · 4 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The vice president’s…
Trump blames GOP midterm defeat on the Iran warsemafor.com · 5 days agoOil prices fell for a fourth successive day, with traders betting that Democrats’ victories reduced the risk of escalation between Washington and Tehran. US President Donald Trump conceded the Iran war was the defining issue that drove a…
Trump defends decisions on Iran conflict despite midterm lossesFox News · 4 days agoFox News Trump defends decisions on Iran conflict despite midterm losses Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo joins ‘America’s Newsroom’ to react to Sen. Bernie Sanders’ proposal to defund the conflict with Iran and Ukrainian President…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions