Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
Yes
9%
▲ 2
9¢
10¢
$10.10
$361K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran, UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal
U.S. strikes Iranian targetsCBS News · 7 days agoUpdated on: November 2, 2026 / 9:54 PM EST / CBS News The U.S. military has launched limited defensive strikes at Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz, three U.S. officials confirmed to CBS News. A senior U.S. official said the…
US strikes Iran despite diplomatic pushsemafor.com · 7 days agoOfficials in Washington reportedly kept the strikes under wraps to avoid signalling a major resumption of hostilities. The US attacked Iranâs Qeshm Island, the latest in a series of targeted strikes that came even as President Donald…
Aaron Cohen: Iran is in trouble, dying economicallyFox News · 7 days agoFox News Aaron Cohen: Iran is in trouble, dying economically Intelligence and counterterrorism expert Aaron Cohen discusses President Donald Trump's response to conflict in the Middle East on 'Fox News @ Night.'
US strikes Iran ahead of midterm electionsBBC News · 7 days agoThe US has launched strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, US officials have told CBS, the BBC's US partner. Iranian state news agency IRNA reported several explosions on the island on Monday. The US officials described…
Trump Eyes Pickaxe Mountain In Fresh Iran ThreatNewsweek · 7 days agoThe U.S. did not attack Pickaxe Mountain in either the brief war in June 2025, nor the campaign from February 2026. - Global Iran WarRussia-UkraineMiddle EastChina And AsiaLive BlogBetter PlanetAll World News President Donald Trump has…
Oil prices fall on US-Iran negotiationssemafor.com · 7 days agoBrent crude oil prices fell to their lowest level in two weeks as Washington hinted at progress in negotiations with Tehran. Brent crude oil prices fell to their lowest level in two weeks Monday, as US President Donald Trump hinted at…
U.S. strikes Iran's Qeshm Island ahead of Election DayCBS News · 6 days agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. U.S. strikes Iran's…
U.S. carries out strikes on Iran’s Qeshm IslandNBC News · 7 days agoThe U.S. carried out limited strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island despite President Trump saying that strikes would not be carried out on Iran before the midterms. NBC News’ Raf Sanchez reports. U.S. carries out strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island…
Election Day, Trump's Closing Message, Iran War And The MidtermsNPR · 7 days agoElection Day is here, with control of Congress hinging on unexpectedly competitive races in states including Iowa, Arkansas and Mississippi.President Trump sounded unusually subdued in his final campaign appearance, acknowledging the…
US-Iran diplomacy CLASHES with Trump's military threatFox News · 7 days agoFox News US-Iran diplomacy CLASHES with Trump's military threat President Donald Trump seeks a diplomatic resolution with Iran but keeps military options open. President Donald Trump considers military action and diplomacy as tensions with…
Oil prices climb after U.S. reportedly strikes Iran's Qeshm IslandCNBC · 7 days agoOil prices climbed on Tuesday after the U.S. reportedly struck Iran's Qeshm Island late Monday, one day before the midterm elections. Brent crude was up 0.97% on Tuesday at $105.77 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was up 0.97% to…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions