Dilution of Iran's Uranium: 13% on Oct 20, 14% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Nov 4, 11 PM ETDilution of Iran's Uranium: 19% → 12%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
Dilution of Iran's Uranium
14%
▲ 3
13¢
14¢
$7.14
$288K
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)
13%
▲ 3
12¢
13¢
$7.69
$374K
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)
12%
▲ 2
11¢
12¢
$8.33
$312K
1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium
9%
▼ 1
8¢
10¢
$10.00
$218K
Iran Reconstruction Funding
7%
▼ 1
6¢
7¢
$14.29
$381K
Enriched Uranium Surrender
6%
▼ 3
5¢
6¢
$16.67
$157K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Renewed US-Iran war fears drive oil prices highersemafor.com · 4 days agoUS President Donald Trump spoke with the emir of Qatar, which has sought to mediate a truce, but Washington and Tehran have also traded heated rhetoric. Oil prices briefly neared $100 a barrel following a days-long selloff on revived…
US-Iran Deal Appears Difficult, Emirati Official SaysUrduPoint · 16 h agoMian Nadeem Published November 09, 2026 | 03:24 PM The UAE opposed a US attack on Iran from the outset, Anwar Gargash says. ABU DHABI, (UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News - 9th Nov, 2026) Anwar Gargash, a senior adviser to the United Arab…
US-Iran peace hope boosts stocks but Nvidia toilsThe Standard · 9 h agoStocks in London closed higher on Monday as the oil price fell and US tech stocks rallied, although Nvidia fell as a scandal enveloped its chief executive Jensen Huang. The FTSE 100 index closed up 108.93 points, 1.0%, at 10,782.87. The…
US-Iran Meeting Odds Jump to 54% by Year-EndThe Rio Times · 11 h ago•Prediction markets. Polymarket puts a US-Iran senior meeting by 31 December at 54% (+15 points in 24 hours), read 10:29 a.m. ET, 9 November 2026. •Trigger. No single trigger was reported; Qatar’s prime minister and foreign minister was…
Trump warns Baghdad over Iraqi militias joining US-Iran warThe New Arab · 14 h agoGaza is being battered this winter amid Israel's genocide Marquez left to wait for MotoGP crown as Bezzecchi wins in Qatar Can Starlink keep Lebanon connected in the event of another war? How America's midterms signal a turning point in…
Brent: Lower prices tied to US-Iran talks – MUFGFXStreet · 15 h agoMUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights a sharp adjustment lower in energy markets, with Brent down about 16% and still weakening. Renewed investor optimism over a potential US-Iran deal and increased diplomatic activity across the Middle East are…
Oil prices fall on hopes for US-Iran peace agreementCrypto Briefing · 10 h agoEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered…
US, Iran not close to any breakthrough, Rubio saysTASS · 26 h agoWASHINGTON, November 9. /TASS/. No progress has been made at the US-Iran talks, and the two sides are not close to any breakthrough there, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said. "I don’t have any progress [in talks with Iran] to report to…
Trump to receive Qatari PM as Doha pushes for US-Iran dealThe New Arab · 11 h agoZohran Mamdani courts unions to shape 2028 US presidential race Masoud Barzani calls for talks with PUK amid Kurdish crisis Why are Gaza's children left exposed to deadly winter floods? Can Starlink keep Lebanon connected in the event of…
Trump to meet Qatari PM as Doha pushes for US-Iran dealThe New Arab · 16 h agoUN chief urges leaders to 'get serious' as COP31 opens Trump plays down return to war, Chinese diplomats in Tehran Can Starlink keep Lebanon connected in the event of another war? How America's midterms signal a turning point in US-Israel…
US, Iran would have signed a deal except for midterms — TrumpTASS · 22 h agoAt the same time, the President of the United States is confident that he will be able to reach an agreement with Iran - Russian Politics & Diplomacy Russian Politics & DiplomacyInto section â- Business & Economy Business & EconomyInto…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions