The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
July 15
<1%
▼ 1
0¢
$569K
July 31
<1%
0¢
$244K
August 31
<1%
▼ 1
0¢
$1.3M
September 30
<1%
▼ 5
0¢
1¢
$90.91
$5K
October 31
<1%
▼ 1
0¢
$722K
December 31
9%
▲ 1
8¢
10¢
$10.00
$34K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
A Hormuz deal leaves Iran its uraniumWashington Examiner · 4 days agoWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
Strait of Hormuz could reopen as part of Qatari plan for Iran nuclear inspectionsthe Guardian · 3 days agoTrump still considering new assault on Iran nuclear sites – though threats less credible after Vance remarks Qatar, the lead mediator in the US-Iran conflict, is seeking to persuade Tehran to allow UN nuclear weapons inspectors to visit…
Trump: US and Iran Talking as Hormuz Mine Attacks ContinueHouse of Saud · 3 days agoاقرأ هذا المقال بالعربية By November 5, in the Oval Office, Trump had folded threat into optimism. “I would rather not destroy the rest of the country if possible, but maybe I’ll have to,” he told reporters, per Tribune India and ANI. The…
Hormuz not to be reopened until Iran’s 7 conditions are metMehr News Agency · 3 days agoTEHRAN, Nov. 07 (MNA) – Iranian Army Spokesman Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia has said US’ acceptance of Iran’s seven conditions is the only way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning any renewed aggression or adventurism in the…
Trump confirms new US strikes on Iran near Strait of HormuzKTUL · 3 days agoWASHINGTON (TNND) — The U.S. military carried out fresh strikes on Iran, targeting an air defense system near the Strait of Hormuz in the first U.S. attacks since the midterm elections, President Donald Trump said on Friday. Trump…
Iran says five tankers and tugboat caught fire in HormuzIndia Shipping News · 3 days agoTEHRAN: Five oil tankers and a tugboat caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and army said in separate statements, according to local media on Thursday. Since the outbreak of the Iran war in late February, Tehran…
Trump Says Strait of Hormuz Is Reopening as US Strikes IranKhaama Press · 3 days agoUS President Donald Trump says Washington remains in talks with Tehran and that the Strait of Hormuz is reopening, even as he confirms fresh limited US strikes against Iranian air-defence systems. Speaking to reporters on Friday, Trump…
Seafarer killed in Gulf as Iran says ships ablaze in HormuzMiddle East Eye · 3 days agoA seafarer was killed when a Greek-owned oil tanker was struck by a projectile in the Gulf, its owner said on Friday, as Iran said several tankers had caught fire after hitting mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The Marshall Islands-flagged…
Iran Says Two Tankers Hit Mines In Strait Of HormuzEurasia Review · 3 days agoThe Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy announced that two oil tankers attempting to pass through unauthorized routes in the Strait of Hormuz struck mines and were stopped in the strategic waterway, according to the IRGC-linked…
Iran Exempts India, China, Iraq and Qatar From HormuzHouse of Saud · 4 days agoTEHRAN — Iran has formally exempted India, China, Iraq and Qatar from transit restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, converting the wartime blockade into a selective pass system that rewards allies and energy customers. Saudi Arabia, the…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions