Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Nov 9, 9 PM ETNovember 30: 17% → 12%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
June 30
<1%
1¢
$115K
July 15
<1%
▼ 3
0¢
$2.8M
July 21
<1%
▼ 3
0¢
$239K
July 24
<1%
▼ 9
0¢
$503K
July 27
<1%
0¢
$252K
July 31
<1%
▼ 1
0¢
$2.3M
August 15
<1%
0¢
$771K
August 31
<1%
▼ 3
0¢
$1.5M
September 30
<1%
▼ 1
0¢
$1.1M
October 31
<1%
▼ 2
0¢
$408K
November 30
12%
▼ 4
11¢
12¢
$8.33
$304K
December 31
21%
▼ 6
20¢
21¢
$4.76
$1M
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
US reportedly carries out limited strikes on IranFox News · 2 days agoThe U.S. military on Friday reportedly carried out new limited strikes on Iran, targeting an air defense system. US reportedly carries out limited strikes on Iran The U.S. military on Friday reportedly carried out new limited strikes on…
US offers $20m reward for information about Iran's nuclear programmeBBC News · 2 days agoThe US has announced a reward of up to $20 million for information about Iran's nuclear programme. The State Department's Rewards for Justice is also offering to potentially relocate the person who provides such details. President Donald…
U.S. military carries out new limited strikes on IranNBC News · 3 days agoWASHINGTON — President Donald Trump said the U.S. military on Friday carried out new limited strikes on Iran, targeting an Iranian air defense system. Iranian state media reported the sound of two explosions in the Suza area of Qeshm…
US Escalates Iran War After JD Vance Blames It for GOP LossesNewsweek · 2 days agoNov 07, 2026 at 11:54 AM EST Nov 07, 2026 at 11:56 AM EST The U.S. is expanding its pressure campaign against Iran just days after Vice President JD Vance said the conflict cost Republicans control of Congress. U.S. Central Command…
Trump claims his administration is making progress to end Iran warCBS News · 2 days agoCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Trump…
Trump drops major bombshell about ending the US war with IranNew York Post · 2 days agoPresident Trump stated that Iran is seeking a deal to end its eight-month war with the U.S., noting an agreement "could happen." Tehran confirmed ongoing diplomatic contacts through Qatari mediators, though recent talks yielded modified…
Trump says the US is carrying out 'minor strikes' against IranFox News · 2 days agoRetired four-star General Jack Keane reacts to the U.S. carrying out minor strikes against Iran and CENTCOM launching a task force to disrupt Iranian shipments of weapons and materials. Trump says the US is carrying out 'minor strikes'…
Dan Hoffman analyzes violent French protests and US military action against IranFox News · 2 days agoFormer CIA Station Chief Dan Hoffman joins Jon Scott to discuss union protests across France, Israeli political developments, and Donald Trump's confirmation of a U.S. military strike on an Iranian anti-aircraft device. Dan Hoffman…
Trump reportedly weighing NEW STRIKES on IranFox News · 3 days agoFox News Trump reportedly weighing NEW STRIKES on Iran President Donald Trump weighs renewed military operations against Iran following meetings with his national security team.
Expanding on naval blockade, U.S. military looks to restrict Iranian land commerceCNBC · 2 days agoBuilding on a months-long naval blockade on Iran, the U.S. military said on Saturday it is launching a task force to help crack down on Tehran's movement of advanced weapons and other sanctioned material over its land borders and through…
Iran war advocates own this debacleWashington Examiner · 4 days agoWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
Who Could Be Trump’s Iran War Fall GuyNewsweek · 3 days agoNov 06, 2026 at 12:24 PM EST As the political fallout from the Iran war begins to rain down on President Donald Trump and his administration, attention is turning to who will ultimately accept the blame for the drawn-out conflict that…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions