Next leader out of power before 2027?

Polymarket World Closes Dec 31 · $61.9K today · $2.6M traded · $73.8K at stake · prices read 5 min ago

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The odds

50%None before 2027
  • None before 202750%▼ 2
  • Netanyahu - Israel PM38%▲ 3
  • Sánchez - Spanish PM5%▼ 1
  • Lecornu - France PM2%▼ 1
  • Abbas - President of Palestine1%
  • Díaz-Canel - Cuba President1%
  • Trump - USA President1%
  • Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea<1%
  • Xi - General Secretary of the CCP<1%
  • Merz - German Chancellor<1%
  • Macron - France President<1%
  • Putin - Russia President<1%
10 more
  • Erdoğan - Türkiye President<1%
  • Zelenskyy - Ukraine President<1%
  • Lula da Silva - Brazil President<1%
  • Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President<1%
  • Newsom - California Governor<1%
  • Albanese - Australia PM<1%
  • Milei - Argentina President<1%
  • Takaichi - Japan PM<1%
  • Sheinbaum - Mexico President<1%
  • al-Sharaa - Syria President<1%

How the odds have moved

None before 2027: 47% on Oct 20, 50% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
None before 2027 50% ▼ 2 50¢ 52¢ $1.92 $377K
Netanyahu - Israel PM 38% ▲ 3 37¢ 40¢ $2.50 $561K
Sánchez - Spanish PM 5% ▼ 1 3¢ 6¢ $16.39 $96.4K
Lecornu - France PM 2% ▼ 1 2¢ 2¢ $62.50 $67.9K
Abbas - President of Palestine 1% 1¢ 1¢ $100.00 $75.1K
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 1% 1¢ 1¢ $100.00 $89.9K
Trump - USA President 1% 1¢ 1¢ $84.1K
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea <1% 0¢ 1¢ $111K
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP <1% 0¢ 1¢ $1K
Merz - German Chancellor <1% 0¢ 1¢ $88.5K
Macron - France President <1% 0¢ 0¢ $89.6K
Putin - Russia President <1% 0¢ 0¢ $79.7K
Erdoğan - Türkiye President <1% 0¢ 0¢ $74.4K
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President <1% 0¢ 0¢ $72.9K
Lula da Silva - Brazil President <1% 0¢ 0¢ $90.5K
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President <1% 0¢ 0¢ $73.9K
Newsom - California Governor <1% 0¢ 0¢ $76.6K
Albanese - Australia PM <1% 0¢ 0¢ $84.7K
Milei - Argentina President <1% 0¢ 0¢ $74.4K
Takaichi - Japan PM <1% 0¢ 0¢ $76.3K
Sheinbaum - Mexico President <1% 0¢ 0¢ $84.1K
al-Sharaa - Syria President <1% 0¢ 0¢ $67.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

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