No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026: 88% on Oct 20, 91% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
91%
▼ 3
90¢
91¢
$1.10
$461K
December
6%
▲ 1
4¢
7¢
$13.89
$30.4K
November
2%
▲ 1
1¢
4¢
$23.81
$19.8K
October
<1%
0¢
$33.3K
July
<1%
0¢
$25.8K
August
<1%
0¢
$53.8K
September
<1%
0¢
$22.6K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Iran conflict intensifies in Strait of HormuzFox News · 31 h ago'The Sunday Panel' breaks down midterm elections, Trump's new appointment in the WH and the ongoing tensions in Iran. Iran conflict intensifies in Strait of Hormuz 'The Sunday Panel' breaks down midterm elections, Trump's new appointment…
Strait of Hormuz could reopen as part of Qatari plan for Iran nuclear inspectionsthe Guardian · 3 days agoTrump still considering new assault on Iran nuclear sites – though threats less credible after Vance remarks Qatar, the lead mediator in the US-Iran conflict, is seeking to persuade Tehran to allow UN nuclear weapons inspectors to visit…
Iran says 7 tankers damaged in Strait of HormuzBostonGlobe.com · 24 h agoIran’s state television reported on Thursday that seven oil tankers were either struck by attacks or hit naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, possibly the largest single-day number of vessels damaged in the waterway since the…
Strait of Hormuz reopening: Iran says 2-day fast-track plan remains on tableLatest News · 14 h agoIran confirms its 2-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains on the table, contingent on the US meeting Tehran's terms. - Strait of Hormuz reopening: Iran says 2-day fast-track plan remains on table Iran confirms its 2-day…
Iran says navigational systems destroyed in southern Strait of HormuzMoneycontrol · 22 h agoIranian state media on Monday reported that navigational aid systems in the southern Strait of Hormuz had been destroyed, adding that no unauthorised vessels had crossed the maritime route overnight. The information was attributed to an…
Accepting Iran’s Demands Would Restore Security In Strait Of Hormuz: BaqaeiUrduPoint · 18 h agoMian Nadeem Published November 09, 2026 | 03:18 PM In case of aggression by the enemy, a crushing response will be given, and a navigation aid system south of the Strait of Hormuz has been destroyed—the Revolutionary Guards. He said Iran…
US and Iran Consider $8 Billion Deal to Reopen Strait of HormuzCoinpedia Fintech News · 16 h agoQadir Ak is the founder of Coinpedia. He has over a decade of experience writing about technology and has been covering the blockchain and cryptocurrency space since 2010. He has also interviewed a few prominent experts within the…
“Strait of Hormuz gives Iran strategic leverage,” says Iranian officialKalingaTV · 35 h agoTehran: Secretary of the Expediency Council’s secretariat in Iran Abbas-Ali Kadkhodaei on Sunday underlined that the Strait of Hormuz gives Iran strategic leverage in global affairs. Speaking at a meeting on governance, legislative, and…
Iran allows ship carrying fertiliser for SL to pass Strait of Hormuzisland.lk · 25 h agoPakistan pace gamble could play into Sri Lanka’s hands Manamperi, Fernando clinch SLTA YETI Hard Courts titles Mahinda reach Under 19 Division I Tier A final Lahiru’s seven-wicket haul guides Christ King to title Tennis world number one…
IRGC Says Tanker Transit Halted in Southern Strait of Hormuziranwire.com · 16 h agoNumber of Vendors seeking consent or relying on legitimate interest: 182 These means of processing can be used solely in pursuit of one or several purposes for which you are given a choice in this notice. Number of Vendors seeking consent…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions