The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
July 31
<1%
▼ 2
0¢
$53.2K
August 31
<1%
▼ 1
0¢
$176K
September 30
<1%
0¢
3¢
$35.71
$8.1K
December 31
27%
▲ 2
25¢
28¢
$3.57
$343K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Iran war advocates own this debacleWashington Examiner · 4 days agoWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
Trump reportedly weighing NEW STRIKES on IranFox News · 4 days agoFox News Trump reportedly weighing NEW STRIKES on Iran President Donald Trump weighs renewed military operations against Iran following meetings with his national security team.
U.S. military carries out new limited strikes on IranNBC News · 3 days agoWASHINGTON — President Donald Trump said the U.S. military on Friday carried out new limited strikes on Iran, targeting an Iranian air defense system. Iranian state media reported the sound of two explosions in the Suza area of Qeshm…
A Hormuz deal leaves Iran its uraniumWashington Examiner · 4 days agoWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
Who Could Be Trump’s Iran War Fall GuyNewsweek · 3 days agoNov 06, 2026 at 12:24 PM EST As the political fallout from the Iran war begins to rain down on President Donald Trump and his administration, attention is turning to who will ultimately accept the blame for the drawn-out conflict that…
Iran sees ‘more leverage’ after GOP midterm losses, expert warnsFox Business · 3 days agoFox Business Iran sees ‘more leverage’ after GOP midterm losses, expert warns Eurasia Group founder and President Ian Bremmer analyzes the prospect of renewed U.S. strikes on Iran, the shifting dynamics of the conflict between Russia and…
Alarming satellite images show construction near Iran missile bases: reportNew York Post · 3 days agoTroubling new satellite images suggest that Iran has been rapidly rebuilding its missile bases that were decimated by months of airstrikes by the US and Israeli military, according to a new report. At least 12 other military sites…
Pressure Mounts on Pete Hegseth Ahead of Impeachment Push Over IranNewsweek · 3 days agoNov 06, 2026 at 01:41 PM EST Pressure is mounting on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth from both sides of the political aisle, with Republican Representative Thomas Massie preparing to force a House impeachment vote as soon as next week and…
Trump urged to 'move on' from Iran after midterm defeatFox News · 3 days agoFox News Trump urged to 'move on' from Iran after midterm defeat Laura Ingraham analyzes the midterm election results and discusses the path forward for Republicans with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Victor Davis Hanson and Byron York.
US offers $20 million reward for information on Iran's nuclear programFox News · 3 days agoCalifornia Post opinion editor Joel Pollak discusses how the Iran war and President Donald Trump’s actions influenced voter sentiment in the 2026 midterm elections on ‘Life, Liberty & Levin.’ The U.S. is offering up to $20 million to…
Trump briefed on narrow window for a new military campaign in IranNBC News · 3 days agoWASHINGTON - Some of President Donald Trump’s advisers have told him that his window for restarting major combat operations in Iran is closing and he should act before a new Congress takes office in January, which would require him to make…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions