Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

Polymarket World Closes Dec 31 · $625K traded · $296K at stake · prices read 23 min ago

The odds

3%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 5% on Oct 20, 3% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Yes	3%		2¢	3¢	$30.30	$625K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Lee Jae-myung

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Opposition slams Lee Jae-myung over KOSPI plunge, calls 9000-point bubbleCHOSUNBIZ · 4 days agoWith the sharp drop in the KOSPI index, politicians from opposition parties, including the People Power Party, unleashed a wave of criticism against the Lee Jae-myung administration. People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyeok appeared on…
KOSPI Crash: South Korean index slips below 5,000 target set by President Lee Jae MyungCNBCTV18 · 4 days agoSouth Korea's benchmark KOSPI index is down 8.5% in early trading on Friday, November 6, in-line with the steep AI and Semiconductor sell-off witnessed on Wall Street overnight. Trading was halted for 20 minutes after the index hit its…
South Korea’s $1.7 trillion rout burns day traders, challenges President Lee Jae MyungMoneycontrol · 4 days agoSouth Korea’s government turned the world’s hottest stock market into a political trophy. Now, a reversal that’s wiped out more than a trillion dollars in value is stirring a retail investor backlash and testing public faith in its…
Cho Kuk: Special Counsel on Fabricated Indictments Without Power to Withdraw Indictments Is My Consistent Position... What Will 'New Lee Jae-myung' Say Now?The Asia Business Daily · 4 days agoPublished 06 Nov.2026 13:58(KST) Updated 06 Nov.2026 14:05(KST) Cho Kuk, head of the Innovation Policy Research Institute of the Rebuilding Korea Party. Yonhap News Agency On November 5, Cho wrote on Facebook, “The Special Counsel Act on…
Seoul City: "Don't Demonize Private Redevelopment"... Rebuts President Lee Jae Myung's RemarksThe Asia Business Daily · 5 days agoPublished 05 Nov.2026 16:59(KST) Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon presides over a meeting on "Seoul Without Loneliness Season 2" at Seoul City Hall on the 30th of last month. Yonhap News Agency After President Lee Jae Myung recently emphasized…
South Korea's Seoul Rebuts President Lee Jae-myung's Push to Expand Public Redevelopment, Citing Zero Groundbreakings in Six YearsBigGo Finance · 5 days agoSouth Korea's Seoul Metropolitan Government has pushed back after President Lee Jae-myung ordered regulatory changes to convert private redevelopment into public-led projects. The city noted that of 35 public redevelopment candidate sites…
Gallup Korea finds Lee Jae-myung approval at 41%, disapproval at 50%CHOSUNBIZ · 4 days agoReal estate discontent tops list as Gallup shows mixed mood on President Lee's performance The positive rating for President Lee Jae-myung's handling of state affairs came in at 41%. The negative rating was tallied at 50%. According to…
South Korea's Lee Jae-myung Orders 'Cybersecurity Czar' to Overhaul Fragmented Hacking ResponseBigGo Finance · 6 days agoSouth Korean President Lee Jae-myung instructed his cabinet on the 3rd to actively review the creation of a "cybersecurity czar" body to comprehensively coordinate cybersecurity functions scattered across the public and private sectors…
Lee Jae-myung launches YouTube show to deepen public communication in KoreaCHOSUNBIZ · 6 days agoShow aims for candid Q&A on policy and public concerns via KTV and Lee Jae-myung TV President Lee Jae-myung is unveiling a new YouTube program, "The president's Y," to communicate directly with the public. The first broadcast will air at 9…
Court Rejects Yoon's Acquittal Plea Citing Lee Jae-myung Precedent, Upholds Invalidation Penalty in 2nd TrialSBS World News · 6 days ago"Like a Funeral," Trump Lays Blame as Midterms End in Defeat "What's That Smell?" Shower Filter Discoloration and "Yellow Tap Water" Traced to Manganese "Stock Market is Broken… Similar to Right Before the Great Depression" Eerie Warning…
President Lee Jae-myung calls report on "only Gangnam housing prices falling" fake newsJKN · 6 days agoPresident Lee Jae-myung has refuted as fake news a report that cited his remarks on real estate as saying housing prices are in a "freefall" and claimed they were "only accurate for Gangnam." President Lee explained that he did not say…
President Lee Jae-myung: "Enhanced Floor Area Ratios and Financial Incentives for Accelerated Public Redevelopment"JKN · 6 days agoPresident Lee received a report on the project status from the Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH) and asked about the floor area ratio and zone designation. He also showed interest in the details of the project, such as asking why…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$625K

This week$298

At stake$296K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being p

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions