Lima Mayoral Election Winner

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Result pending · $19.1K today · $794K traded · $104K at stake · prices read 15 min ago

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The odds

11%Rafael López Aliaga
  • Rafael López Aliaga11%▲ 7
  • Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca2%▲ 1
  • Francis James Allison Oyague1%▼ 1
  • Samuel Marcos Daza Taype<1%
  • Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli<1%
  • Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera<1%
  • Santiago Rosendo Abarca León<1%
  • Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo<1%
  • Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino<1%
  • Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra<1%
  • Sandro Caller Gutiérrez<1%
  • Jessica Viviana Linares Romero<1%
11 more
  • Rubén José Ramírez Mateo<1%
  • Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay<1%
  • Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés<1%
  • Flor de María Hurtado Valdez<1%
  • Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar<1%
  • Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza<1%▼ 1
  • Segundo Valdez Zavala<1%
  • Samir Frank Quispe Caballero<1%
  • Yehude Simón Munaro<1%
  • Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué<1%
  • Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega<1%

How the odds have moved

Rafael López Aliaga: 87% on Oct 20, 11% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 9, 10 PM ETRafael López Aliaga: 21% → 11%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  2. Nov 6, 11 PM ETRafael López Aliaga: 54% → 33%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  3. Nov 4, 11 PM ETRafael López Aliaga: 50% → 60%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Rafael López Aliaga 11% ▲ 7 5¢ 18¢ $5.56 $23K
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 2% ▲ 1 0¢ 3¢ $33.33 $104K
Francis James Allison Oyague 1% ▼ 1 0¢ 2¢ $58.82 $189K
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype <1% 0¢ 1¢ $21.9K
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli <1% 0¢ 0¢ $17.4K
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera <1% 0¢ $23.6K
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León <1% 0¢ $11.2K
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo <1% 0¢ $18.2K
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino <1% 0¢ $10.9K
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra <1% 0¢ $11K
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez <1% 0¢ $11K
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero <1% 0¢ $10.8K
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo <1% 0¢ $11.1K
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay <1% 0¢ $11.3K
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés <1% 0¢ $11K
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez <1% 0¢ $10.9K
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar <1% 0¢ $11.4K
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza <1% ▼ 1 0¢ $11.1K
Segundo Valdez Zavala <1% 0¢ $11K
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero <1% 0¢ $10.8K
Yehude Simón Munaro <1% 0¢ $16.6K
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué <1% 0¢ $17.6K
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega <1% 0¢ $12.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Lima Mayoral, Rafael López Aliaga, Francis James Allison Oyague

Search ›

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions