Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
August 12
<1%
▼ 3
0¢
$14.4K
August 15
<1%
0¢
$258K
August 22
<1%
0¢
$186K
August 31
<1%
▼ 2
0¢
1¢
$628K
September 7
<1%
▼ 1
0¢
$15.1K
September 14
<1%
▼ 2
0¢
$422K
September 21
<1%
0¢
$143K
September 30
<1%
▼ 4
0¢
$829K
October 31
1%
2¢
$55.56
$642K
November 30
13%
▼ 1
12¢
14¢
$7.14
$317K
December 31
28%
▲ 5
28¢
29¢
$3.45
$334K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran, Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions