Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Oct 29, 9 PM ETVerónica Díaz Robles: 50% → 61%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
Verónica Díaz Robles
28%
▼ 4
17¢
47¢
$2.13
$9.5K
Noemí Berenice Luna Ayala
24%
▼ 1
12¢
42¢
$2.36
$789
Geovanna Bañuelos de la Torre
19%
▼ 3
4¢
42¢
$2.41
$808
Ulises Mejía Haro
15%
▼ 1
15¢
18¢
$5.56
$23.1K
Jorge Álvarez Máynez
8%
▲ 1
6¢
12¢
$8.13
$824
José Narro Céspedes
3%
1¢
5¢
$18.87
$2.6K
Julia Arcelia Olguín Serna
1%
1¢
2¢
$43.48
$3K
Rodrigo Reyes Mugüerza
1%
1¢
1¢
$825
Carlos Peña Badillo
1%
0¢
1¢
$90.91
$723
Alfonso Ramírez Cuéllar
1%
0¢
1¢
$100.00
$810
Arturo Nahle García
1%
0¢
1¢
$90.91
$815
Zaira Ivonne Villagrana Escareño
<1%
0¢
1¢
$930
Carlos Alberto Puente Salas
<1%
0¢
0¢
$726
Bennelly Jocabeth Hernández Ruedas
<1%
0¢
0¢
$800
Miguel Ángel Varela Pinedo
<1%
0¢
0¢
$794
Fuensanta Guadalupe Guerrero Esquivel
<1%
0¢
0¢
$702
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Zacatecas Governor, Verónica Díaz Robles, Noemí Berenice Luna Ayala
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions