Adrián de la Garza Santos: 23% on Oct 20, 37% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Nov 4, 11 PM ETAdrián de la Garza Santos: 34% → 40%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
Adrián de la Garza Santos
37%
▼ 2
34¢
39¢
$2.56
$14.3K
Mariana Rodríguez Cantú
20%
16¢
24¢
$4.10
$18.5K
Clara Luz Flores Carrales
20%
11¢
29¢
$3.46
$6K
Raúl Lozano Caballero
7%
1¢
13¢
$7.75
$532
Fernando Margáin Berlanga
7%
1¢
12¢
$8.26
$588
Judith Díaz Delgado
6%
1¢
12¢
$8.13
$1K
Félix Arratia Cruz
6%
1¢
12¢
$8.62
$548
Alma Rosa Marroquín Escamilla
5%
1¢
10¢
$10.53
$800
Carlos de la Fuente Flores
5%
1¢
9¢
$11.49
$460
Jesús Alberto Elizondo
5%
1¢
9¢
$11.63
$588
Miguel Flores Serna
4%
1¢
8¢
$13.33
$766
Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas
4%
1¢
7¢
$14.29
$4K
Waldo Fernández González
4%
1¢
7¢
$15.38
$1.4K
Felipe de Jesús Cantú Rodríguez
3%
1¢
6¢
$18.18
$672
Tatiana Clouthier Carrillo
3%
1¢
5¢
$18.87
$3.7K
Arturo Salinas Garza
2%
1¢
4¢
$22.73
$927
Andrés Mijes Llovera
2%
▲ 1
0¢
4¢
$22.73
$1.9K
Martha Herrera González
2%
0¢
3¢
$33.33
$782
Héctor García García
1%
0¢
1¢
$1.7K
Daniel Carrillo Martínez
<1%
0¢
0¢
$5.2K
Annia Gómez Cárdenas
<1%
0¢
0¢
$428
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Nuevo León Governor, Mariana Rodríguez Cantú, Clara Luz Flores Carrales
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions