India strike on Pakistan by...?
5%December 31, 2026
- December 31, 20265%▼ 4
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North Korea x South Korea diplomatic meeting by...? (direct or indirect)
The odds
18%December 31
- December 3118%
How the odds have moved
December 31: 28% on Oct 20, 18% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 1, 9 PM ETDecember 31: 21% → 14%
- Oct 21, 5 PM ETDecember 31: 26% → 20%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 31 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $1.1K | ||
| December 31 | 18% | 16¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | $6.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: North Korea, South Korea
Search ›- North Korea denies involvement in Binance hack and criticizes FBI probe as ‘a trite provocation’SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea on Tuesday denied its involvement in the recent cryptocurrency heist at Binance, dismissing as “a trite provocation” a U.S. announcement that North Korean hackers were behind the incident. Binance, the…
- U.S.-South Korea Tensions Hamper Coordination on North KoreaBusinesskorea Experts Cite Trade and Security Disputes as Straining Alliance Response American experts say growing tensions between the United States and South Korea are placing practical constraints on their efforts to respond jointly to…
- North Korea denies involvement in $6.3B Binance crypto heistNorth Korea rejected allegations that it was involved in a $6.3 billion heist on cryptocurrency exchange platform Binance, saying it was “absurd rhetoric.” Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, in a statement…
- North Korea Vows to Bolster Nuclear Deterrent Citing US–South Korea Military DrillsNorth Korea has said a recent joint military exercise by South Korean and U.S. forces was a “rehearsal” for targeting the reclusive state in a nuclear war. As a result, Pyongyang asserted that it would ramp up its efforts to strengthen its…
- North Korea Denies $6.3B Binance Hack, Calls FBI Finding a 'Political Provocation'North Korea has rejected U.S. findings that it was behind the record hack of Binance, calling the FBI's attribution a "grave political provocation," Yonhap reported on Tuesday. "It is a grave political provocation against the DPRK that the…
- South Korea Calls Emergency Crypto Meeting as North Korean Hacking Threats EscalateHome > Regulation > South Korea Calls Emergency Crypto Meeting as North Korean Hacking Threats Escalate South Korea has intensified its oversight of the cryptocurrency industry after a massive security breach at Binance raised fresh…
- North Korea denies being behind record $6.3bn Binance hackNorth Korea has denied claims that it was behind the record $6.3bn (£4.7bn) hack of cryptocurrency exchange Binance, calling the allegations an "absurd rhetoric". Kim Yo-jong, one of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's top…
- A soldier died at the border with North Korea. South Korea has launched an investigationThe South Korean army announced on Monday that an unconscious soldier had been found at a front-line unit near the border with North Korea. According to local media, the junior non-commissioned officer died from head injuries. Civil and…
- North Korea Vows Faster Nuclear Build-Up After US-South Korea.North Korea has condemned a recent US-South Korean military exercise as a rehearsal for nuclear war and vowed to accelerate efforts to strengthen its nuclear deterrent. Kim Jong-sik, a senior official of the ruling Workers’ Party, said the…
- North Korea denies links to Binance hack as researchers trace stolen billionsNorth Korea rejected U.S. allegations linking Pyongyang to the estimated $6.3 billion Binance hack, calling the accusation a “grave political provocation,” according to state media. Kim Yo Jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un…
- Japan, US, South Korea coordinate response to North Korea’s missile launches(VOVWORLD) -Senior officials from Japan, the United States, and South Korea on Monday discussed by phone measures to respond to North Korea’s recent missile launches. Japan, US, South Korea coordinate response to North Korea’s missile…
- South Korea Joins US Space Force Partner to Win for First Time Amid North Korean GPS Jamming SurgeThe other five participating nations are not new to US Space Force-led wargaming formats. South Korea's inclusion brings the coalition to six partners and adds a nation whose threat environment — a nuclear-armed neighbor operating an…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions