Predictions › Elections › Around the world
Yes: 46% on Oct 20, 46% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Marine Le Pen 45% David Lisnard 14% ▼ 1 Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13% 43 more Édouard Philippe 9% ▲ 1 Christine Lagarde 6% ▼ 1 Teddy Riner 3% Raphaël Glucksmann 2% Jordan Bardella 2% Dominique de Villepin 2% François Hollande 2% Bruno Retailleau 1% ▲ 1 Gabriel Attal <1% Éric Zemmour <1% Sébastien Lecornu <1% François Baroin <1% Xavier Bertrand <1% Laurent Wauquiez <1% François Ruffin <1% Marine Tondelier <1% Fabien Roussel <1% Olivier Faure <1% Ségolène Royal <1% François Asselineau <1% Clémentine Autain <1% Nicolas Dupont-Aignan <1% Michel Barnier <1% Valérie Pécresse <1% François Bayrou <1% Élisabeth Borne <1% Yaël Braun-Pivet <1% Jean Castex <1% Gérald Darmanin <1% Carole Delga <1% Bernard Cazeneuve <1% Manuel Bompard <1% Mathilde Panot <1% Sarah Knafo <1% Juan Branco <1% Clémence Guetté <1% Karim Bouamrane <1% Lucie Castets <1% Yannick Jadot <1% Marion Maréchal <1% Natacha Polony <1% Anasse Kazib <1% Sylvain Durif <1% Gadi Eizenkot 63% ▼ 1 Benjamin Netanyahu 25% ▲ 4 Avigdor Lieberman 6% ▼ 2 19 more Naftali Bennett 3% Yossi Cohen <1% Gideon Sa’ar <1% Israel Katz <1% Aviv Kohavi <1% Eli Cohen <1% Yair Lapid <1% Benny Gantz <1% Yair Golan <1% Itamar Ben Gvir <1% Yariv Levin <1% Moshe Feiglin <1% Ayelet Shaked <1% Yoaz Hendel <1% Nir Barkat <1% Amir Ohana <1% Gilad Erdan <1% Ofer Winter <1% Daniel Hagari <1% Luca Niculescu >99% ▲ 5 Mugur Isărescu <1% Mircea Geoană <1% 35 more Anca Dragu <1% Lucian Isar <1% Cătălin Predoiu <1% Sorin Grindeanu <1% George Simion <1% Ilie Bolojan <1% Marcel Ciolacu <1% Alexandru Rafila <1% Sebastian Burduja <1% Ionuț Dumitru <1% Elena Lasconi <1% Cătălin Drulă <1% Vasile Dîncu <1% Dacian Cioloș <1% Emil Boc <1% Dominic Fritz <1% Raluca Turcan <1% Lucian Croitoru <1% Delia Velculescu <1% Nicolae Ciucă <1% Hunor Kelemen <1% Calin Georgescu <1% Radu Burnete <1% Șerban Matei <1% Alexandru Nazare <1% Alexandru Rogobete <1% Dragoș Pîslaru <1% Traian Basescu <1% Dan Motreanu <1% Victor Ponta <1% Ciprian Ciucu <1% Eugen Tomac <1% Siegfried Mureșan <1% Adrian Veștea <1% Leonardo Badea <1% November 30, 2026 99% December 31, 2026 >99% March 31, 2027 >99% Lula, Eizenkot, Dems 57% ▼ 8 Lula, Netanyahu, Dems 19% ▲ 5 Lula, Bennett, Dems 1% ▲ 1 9 more Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Reps <1% ▼ 11 Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Reps <1% ▼ 11 Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Dems <1% ▼ 12 Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems <1% ▼ 41 Bolsonaro, Bennett, Dems <1% ▼ 3 Bolsonaro, Bennett, Reps <1% Lula, Eizenkot, Reps <1% ▼ 5 Lula, Netanyahu, Reps <1% ▼ 5 Lula, Bennett, Reps <1% ▼ 7 National Party 98% Labour Party 2% Green Party <1% 3 more ACT New Zealand <1% New Zealand First Party <1% Te Pāti Māori <1% Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Trading closes Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET
Traded $64.6K
Today $828
This week $1.4K
At stake $20.5K
Followed here since Oct 19, 2026
The rules This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is part of the state government (Landesregierung) of any of Germany's 16 federal states at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A party is considered part of a state government if it provides at least one Minister in that state's government, including the Minister-President. In the city-states of Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen, a party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate. A state government is considered formed when the state parli
The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket .
A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use . How to use Predictions