The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
Yes
36%
▲ 1
34¢
37¢
$2.70
$44.6K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Netanyahu Pressed Trump to Strike Iran After Midterms, Axios ReportsHouse of Saud · 8 days agoاقرأ هذا المقال بالعربية An Israeli official described the phone call as “tough.” A US official called it “direct.” Neither government confirmed the substance of the conversation, and the accounts published by Axios on November 1, relayed…
U.S. launches airstrikes on IranCBS News · 6 days agoCBS News: America Decides: Election 2026 CBS News Bay Area: Voters Decide CBS News Chicago: Voters Decide CBS News Colorado: Voters Decide CBS News Detroit: Voters Decide CBS News Los Angeles: Voters Decide CBS News Sacramento: Voters…
U.S. launches new air strikes on IranCBS News · 6 days agoCBS News Boston: Voters Decide CBS News Chicago: Voters Decide CBS News Detroit: Voters Decide CBS News Miami: Voters Decide CBS News Minnesota: Voters Decide CBS News New York: Voters Decide CBS News Philadelphia: Voters Decide CBS News…
Key Iranian leader responds to US midterms | CNNCNN · 6 days agoA key Iranian leader and negotiator, Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf just posted his views on the US midterm elections on X. CNN's Nic Robertson reports. Spanish soccer player Jesús de Miguel died after an on-field collision during a…
US strikes Iran despite diplomatic pushsemafor.com · 7 days agoOfficials in Washington reportedly kept the strikes under wraps to avoid signalling a major resumption of hostilities. The US attacked Iranâs Qeshm Island, the latest in a series of targeted strikes that came even as President Donald…
U.S. strikes Iranian targetsCBS News · 7 days agoUpdated on: November 2, 2026 / 9:54 PM EST / CBS News The U.S. military has launched limited defensive strikes at Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz, three U.S. officials confirmed to CBS News. A senior U.S. official said the…
How Trump's Iran war may have reshaped the midterm electionsCNBC · 6 days agoMidterm results would have looked 'very different' without Trump's Iran war: Fmr U.S. policy adviser CNBC Midterm results would have looked 'very different' without Trump's Iran war: Fmr U.S. policy adviser
Top Republicans blame Iran war for midterm results | CNN PoliticsCNN · 6 days agoPresident Donald Trump’s top political advisers warned that the war in Iran could hurt Republicans' chances in the midterm elections. Now, on Election Day, some top GOP officials are pointing fingers at those who encouraged it. CNN’s…
US strikes Iranian island in Strait of HormuzFox News · 6 days agoJennifer Griffin reports on U.S. military strikes on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran targeted an American aircraft. Mike Pompeo also joins to analyze the conflict during 'The Faulkner Focus.' US strikes Iranian island in…
Trump details 'minor' attack on Iran's Qeshm IslandFox News · 6 days agoFox News Trump details 'minor' attack on Iran's Qeshm Island President Donald Trump sheds light on the latest Iran strikes, calling the episode 'minor' as tensions linger in the Middle East.
Iran’s Real Fortification at Pickaxe Mountain Is DoubtNewsweek · 6 days agoNov 03, 2026 at 11:30 AM EST On the eve of the midterms, President Donald Trump told Fox News’ Sean Hannity that going after Pickaxe Mountain, a tunnel complex near Iran’s Natanz enrichment site, was "not a big deal." In fact, he said it…
Julian Epstein: The failure of the Iran war was the communications around itFox News · 6 days agoFox News Julian Epstein: The failure of the Iran war was the communications around it A ‘FOX News Democracy 26’ panel discusses the impact of the war in Iran on the 2026 midterm elections, the Trump administration’s messaging on the…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions