Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Nov 4, 11 PM ETDecember 31, 2026: 21% → 14%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
Oct 25, 11 PM ETDecember 31, 2026: 14% → 21%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
June 30, 2026
<1%
1¢
$386K
December 31, 2026
14%
▼ 1
14¢
15¢
$6.67
$553K
January 15, 2027
51%
▲ 3
50¢
52¢
$1.92
$38.6K
January 31, 2027
78%
▼ 2
77¢
78¢
$1.28
$31K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Pedro Sánchez takes momentum at 'La revuelta'Ara in English · 18 days agoPedro Sánchez aspires to an absolute majority and David Broncano wants to vocalize better. These are the two great desires expressed by the protagonists of La revuelta. It is difficult to say which of the two has it more complicated…
‘Democracy always’: Lula vows no return to dictatorship in Brazil after election winthe Guardian · 14 days agoLeaders and governments worldwide congratulate Lula on dramatic comeback seen as an important signal to rest of Latin America Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Brazilian president, has vowed that dictatorship and fascism will never return to…
Spain is no place for women and girls under Pedro Sánchez@spikedonline · 19 days agoThe Spanish PM preaches feminism, while promoting gender self-ID and allowing old ladies to be turfed out of their homes. Sánchez’s UN address was part of a broader PR tour in the US. This included catch-ups with New York City mayor Zohran…
Spain’s Right Holds Poll Lead, Left SplitsThe Rio Times · 14 days agoSpain’s right-wing parties are still heading for a majority, while the Socialist government wins back a little ground but finds no way to win. Sigma Dos, a leading Spanish polling firm, puts the People’s Party (PP) and the Vox party at 191…
Zohran Mamdani’s contempt for doing his job will cost him — and NYCNew York Post · 16 days agoThe Post’s exposure of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s weird habit of not bothering to sign bills into law bodes ill for him and for the city. He’s taken the trouble to sign just one in his first 10 months, vs. 30, 47 and 28 for the last three…
Spain’s Right Joins Forces for the SenateThe Rio Times · 14 days agoThis story is part of our coverage of the Spain Election 2026. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide. Latest: Spain's Election Candidate Lists Due Monday Spain elects two chambers. The Senate is the upper house, and in each…
Spain’s opposition posts AI deepfakes of Sánchez’s wife before electionTNW | Politics · 15 days agoA minister calls the People’s party video “a colossal lie”, and one woman it depicts has gone to court. Most of the experts El País asked say the Spain deepfake video is legal. Pedro Sánchez at the emergency command post in Oliva…
Spain. 25,000 rally in Madrid demanding state pension guaranteesPension Policy International · 14 days agoAuthorities said 25,000 people marched through central Madrid on Saturday, October 24, demanding protection for the Spanish state pension scheme, one of the hot topics in a parliamentary election next month. The rally comes amid a…
Fighting side by side from Kyiv to Panama: A look back at the 2025 International Youth Campinternationalviewpoint.org · 14 days ago“Will you be coming to our summer university?” “No, I can’t this year. But I sent word to comrades, and quite a few of them are interested.” The last bus awaits in the camp’s parking lot. Young people, most of whom didn’t know each other a…
French MPs will vote on Sánchez-style amnesty plan for undocumented workersPOLITICO · 14 days agoPresidential candidate Raphaël Glucksmann is expected to endorse the measure, which would grant amnesty to hundreds of thousands of unauthorized immigrants. PARIS — Lawmakers in the French National Assembly will vote on a Socialist Party…
Donald Trump lashes out at 13 World Cup participants in social media postSPORTbible · 14 days agoTrump has called out 13 World Cup nations amid the US and Israel's continuing war on Iran. US President Donald Trump has called out 13 World Cup nations in a furious post on his Truth Social platform. The 2026 World Cup is due to be…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions