Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Nov 30 · $445 today · $33.3K traded · $3.6K at stake · prices read 6 min ago

The odds

25%November 30

October 31<1%
November 3025%▼ 3

How the odds have moved

October 31: 17% on Oct 20, <1% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
September 15	<1%		0¢	6¢	$17.24	$1.9K
September 30	<1%	▼ 4		0¢		$10.7K
October 31	<1%		0¢	0¢		$14.5K
November 30	25%	▼ 3	22¢	27¢	$3.70	$6.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Iran, United Arab Emirates

Search ›

Photographic Study Tracks Nature Reclaiming Abandoned Sites Across United Arab EmiratesBIOENGINEER.ORG · 2 days agoA photographic investigation reveals how spontaneous ecosystems temporarily reclaim abandoned villages, industrial facilities, and quarries across the United Arab Emirates before rapid urban redevelopment resumes. Subject of Research…
KnowBe4 Named Best Workplace in United Arab Emirates@PRNewswire · 30 h agoKnowBe4 secures spot as 2025 Best Workplace in the UAE by Great Place to Work DUBAI, UAE, Feb. 16, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- KnowBe4, the world-renowned cybersecurity platform that comprehensively ... KnowBe4 secures spot as 2025 Best Workplace…
South Africa tour of United Arab Emirates - Find Cricket Records & StatsCricinfo · 3 days agoSouth Africa tour of United Arab Emirates Cricinfo Afghanistan v South Africa ODI Series (in United Arab Emirates One-Day Internationals) - Complete index | Most runs | Most wickets | High scores | Best bowling | High team totals South…
Paris Saint-Germain v Troyes | Goal.com United Arab Emirates@goal · 37 h agoLatest news, stats and live commentary for the Ligue 1's meeting between Paris Saint-Germain v Troyes on the 8 May 2022 Help us verify your age by providing an honest response. This site contains gambling advertising for 24+. You’re not…
Troyes v Paris Saint-Germain | Goal.com United Arab Emirates@goal · 37 h agoLatest news, stats and live commentary for the Ligue 1's meeting between Troyes v Paris Saint-Germain on the 3 March 2018 Help us verify your age by providing an honest response. This site contains gambling advertising for 24+. You’re not…
UN Says United Arab Emirates Hired Colombian Mercenaries to Fight in SudanU@co1ombia · 3 days agoA recent report by the United Nations Independent International Mission confirmed something that had already been repeatedly discussed: Colombian mercenaries were fighting in Sudan alongside the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). But…
Oman must avoid a heavy defeat to hold fourth place — United Arab Emirates National Cricket Team Vs Oman National Cricket Team StandingsEl-Balad.com · 2 days agoUnited Arab Emirates national cricket team vs Oman national cricket team standings: Oman must avoid a heavy defeat to keep fourth place and reach the Qualifier Play-off. This is where standings stop being abstract and become ruthless. Oman…
ImmunityBio Receives United Arab Emirates Marketing Authorization For ANKTIVA Across BCG-Unresponsive Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer And Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung CancerMarketScreener · 3 days agoPublished on 07/30/2026 at 04:38 am EDT Median duration of complete response (DoR), months (95% CI) (n=71) was 26.6 (13.0, 49.9). Range in months was 0.0, 54+ months. % (n) with CR at 12 months was 66% (47/71). Median Disease-Free Survival…
DOF Backs USD20 Million United Arab Emirates Grant To Support Pasig River Restoration ProjectPAGEONE · 4 days agoIn a statement Thursday, the DOF said the proposed assistance will support the Pasig River Restoration Project (PRRP), which targets a 25 percent reduction in plastic and organic waste entering the Pasig River system over five years…
Desalination: Veolia wins nearly 200m in contracts in Oman and the United Arab EmiratesMarketScreener · 3 days agoVeolia is expanding its presence and capabilities in the Middle East through two major desalination contracts worth nearly 200m in total. The growth includes the award of a five-year contract to operate the Al Asilah desalination plant in…
Veolia Environnement S.A. Announces Major Desalination Contracts In Oman And United Arab EmiratesMarketScreener · 3 days agoPublished on 11/05/2026 at 02:25 am EST In Oman, Veolia Environnement S.A. has been awarded a five-year contract to operate and optimize the operational performance of the Al Asilah desalination plant, which has a capacity of 80,000 m³ per…
Trump meets key Iran war mediator as UAE reveals major oil export surge despite conflictFox News · 8 h agoReporting from Abu Dhabi, Fox News Digital examines how the UAE is navigating disruptions to global energy supplies. ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates — President Donald Trump met Qatar's prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman…

Related markets

All middle east ›

World › Middle East

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

17%December 31

October 3117%
November 217%
November 317%

9 more

November 417%▼ 93
November 517%
November 617%
November 717%
November 817%▼ 72
November 1517%▼ 51
November 2217%▼ 40
November 3017%▼ 33
December 3117%▼ 25

World › Middle East

US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?

33%December 31

November 533%
November 633%▲ 1
November 833%▼ 80

3 more

November 1533%▼ 57
November 3033%▼ 39
December 3133%▼ 28

World › Middle East

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

38%December 31

March 3118%▲ 2
October 3118%▼ 2
November 218%▼ 2

3 more

November 1518%▼ 1
November 3018%▼ 4
December 3138%▲ 2

World › Middle East

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

94%October 29

October 2994%
October 3094%
October 3194%▲ 1

12 more

November 194%
November 294%
November 394%
November 494%
November 594%
November 694%
November 794%
November 1594%▲ 4
November 2294%▲ 8
November 3094%▲ 9
December 1594%▲ 10
December 3194%▲ 10

World › Middle East

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

10%chance▲ 3

World › Middle East

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

13%December 31

October 31<1%▼ 1
November 303%▲ 1
December 3113%▲ 3

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 30, 2026 2:59 PM ET

Traded$33.3K

Today$445

This week$2.5K

At stake$3.6K

In the news905 headlines today, 5,000 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets the United Arab Emirates through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time (GST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at the United Arab Emirates. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; S

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions