Will Claude be permitted for use in the Department of War supply chain? (Before Jan 1, 2028)

Kalshi Politics › Trump administration Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $1.4K traded · $411 at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

Oct 16, 2027even chance by

Before Jan 1, 202717%▲ 1
Before Apr 1, 202727%▲ 1
Before Jul 1, 202743%▲ 1
Before Jan 1, 202856%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Before Jan 1, 2027: 13% on Oct 20, 17% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Jan 1, 2027	17%	▲ 1	14¢	20¢	$5.00	4.1K
Before Apr 1, 2027	27%	▲ 1	24¢	29¢	$3.45	2.3K
Before Jul 1, 2027	43%	▲ 1	39¢	46¢	$2.17	123
Before Jan 1, 2028	56%	▲ 1	52¢	59¢	$1.69

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Anthropic, Claude, Department of War

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Department of War's Office of Strategic Capital Signs Conditional LoanU.S. Department of War (.gov) · 8 days agoCommitment of up to U.S. Department of War (.gov) The Department of War's Office of Strategic Capital (OSC) announced today a conditional loan commitment of up to $450 million to Neros, Inc., a U.S.-based developer and manufacturer of…
Pentagon Urges Congress to Officially Restore “Department of War”The Presidential Prayer Team · 8 days agoThe Congressional Budget Office estimated the name change could cost up to $125 million, but would not significantly affect the president’s $1.5 trillion defense budget request. Sources: The Hill, Fox News READ MORE HHS Reports Decrease in…
President Trump Tasked the Department of War with Securing our Southern Border--WE DELIVEREDMilitary News · 9 days agoMilitaryNews.com On Day One, President Trump tasked the Department of War with securing our southern border. Keep up with the Department of War on social media! There was a problem reporting this. Keep it Clean. Please avoid obscene…
Pentagon demands Congress make Department of War name change permanentJust The News · 10 days agoPentagon spokesman Sean Parnell demanded Monday that Congress permanently rename the Department of Defense as the Department of War, after President Trump signed an executive order last year that unofficially allowed the moniker. The…
SBA Commends U.S. Department of War’s Suspension of CMMC Phase II for Small Defense Contractors@SBAgov · 10 days agoWASHINGTON — Today, the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) commended the U.S. Department of War (DoW) for suspending its Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification (CMMC) program Phase II requirements, which were originally scheduled…
Department of War Awards Lockheed Martin $58.62B for Multiyear PAC-3 MSE Production to Strengthen the Arsenal of FreedomLockheed Martin · 10 days agoThe new funding further enables Lockheed Martin to supercharge PAC-3 MSE production and triple capacity by the end of 2030. It also supports a 50% increase in jobs, from 1,200 to approximately 1,850, just in Camden, Arkansas, home to…
Anthropic clamps down on Claude’s AI video game clonesThe Verge · 7 days agoAnthropic is steering Claude away from recreating specific titles, but users can still use it to make their own games. Anthropic has updated Claude Code’s system prompt to prevent the AI tool from being used to recreate existing video…
Taller printers, more Tomahawks: Nikon AM wins Department of War contract3D Printing Industry · 11 days agoHome - Taller printers, more Tomahawks: Nikon AM wins Department of War contract Nikon AM announced the contract on October 22, 2026. It was awarded under the Cornerstone Other Transaction Authority (COTA), which DOW uses to fund strategic…
Changing Defense Department's name to Department of War could cost up to $125 million, CBO estimatesCBS News · 12 days agoUpdated on: January 14, 2026 / 4:58 PM EST / CBS News The Trump administration's push to change the Defense Department's name to the Department of War could cost nine figures, according to a new estimate by Congress' budget watchdog…
Hegseth Says Department of War Will Not Make Troops Choose “Between the Uniform and Your Calling” as He Launches the Chaplain In-Service Procurement ProgramNewsBreak · 10 days agoSecretary of War Pete Hegseth said Friday that “President Trump’s Department of War will not make you choose between the uniform and your calling,” announcing the launch of a Chaplain In-Service Procurement Program that would let…
Wolfspeed Announces Conditional 30-Year, $1.5 Billion Loan Commitment from U.S. Department of War to Advance Domestic Wide Bandgap Supply ChainMarketScreener · 11 days agoWolfspeed, Inc. received a conditional loan commitment letter from the U.S. Department of War, through its Office of Strategic Capital, for up to $1.5 billion of long-term financing to support the... received a conditional loan commitment…
Wolfspeed, Inc. Enters Into Conditional Commitment Letter With U.S. Department Of War For Up To $1.5 Billion Senior Secured Delayed Draw Term Loan FacilityMarketScreener · 11 days agoWolfspeed, Inc. announced that it had entered into a conditional commitment letter with the U.S. Department of War , acting by and through its Office of Strategic Capital , contemplating a senior...

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onDepartment of War, White House

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$1.4K (6,540 contracts)

This week$293

At stake$411

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the Department of War or the White House announces an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit the Department of War or its contractors to use Anthropic's AI models or services before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions