When will AP call the Mississippi Senate election? (Nov 3, 2026 election)

Kalshi Elections › Senate For Nov 3 · $2.6K today · $7K traded · $3.9K at stake · prices read 2 min ago

The odds

63%Before Jan 4

Before Jan 463%▼ 2
Before Nov 1163%▼ 19
Before Nov 1482%▲ 11
Before Nov 2196%▼ 2
Before Dec 498%

How the odds have moved

Before Jan 4: 50% on Nov 4, 63% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Nov 9, 10 PM ETBefore Jan 4: 73% → 63%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.
Nov 6, 11 PM ETBefore Jan 4: 49% → 67%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Jan 4	63%	▼ 2	93¢	99¢	$1.01	1.6K
Before Nov 5	6%				$16.67	52.00
Before Nov 6	1%	▼ 1			$100.00	1.8K
Before Nov 11	63%	▼ 19	25¢	35¢	$2.86	8.4K
Before Nov 14	82%	▲ 11	80¢	84¢	$1.19	2.7K
Before Nov 21	96%	▼ 2	95¢	96¢	$1.04	548
Before Dec 4	98%		96¢		$1.02	203

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Mississippi Senate

Search ›

Colom vs. Hyde-Smith: Mississippi Senate Race Update as Key Deadline NearsNewsweek · 5 h agoNov 09, 2026 at 12:45 PM EST Nov 09, 2026 at 12:48 PM EST Mississippi counties must certify and submit their election results by Friday, a key deadline to the still-undecided Senate race between Democrat Scott Colom and Republican…
Mississippi Senate ballot deadline looms, as Democrat’s lead remains steadyThe Washington Post · 10 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Scott Colom's lead…
Mississippi Senate candidate Scott Colom attacks Cook Political Report accuracyThe Washington Post · 5 h agoSenate candidate Scott Colom (D) in Mississippi lashed out at the Cook Political Report on Monday, criticizing the vaunted election forecaster for underestimating his campaign’s strength against incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R). In a…
Razor-tight Mississippi Senate race sparks ballot battle - could there be a recount?BBC News · 3 days agoThe Democrats hold a narrow lead over the Republicans in the US Senate race in Mississippi, with both sides in a dispute over the counting of the remaining votes which could decide the outcome. Lawyers for each campaign are preparing for a…
Colom says Hyde-Smith 'doesn't have' path to victory in Mississippi Senate raceCNN · 3 days agoColom says Hyde-Smith ‘doesn’t have’ path to victory in Mississippi Senate race CNN Colom says Hyde-Smith ‘doesn’t have’ path to victory in Mississippi Senate race The Democratic candidate for Senate in Mississippi, Scott Colom, says…
Mississippi Senate: Longshot Ty Pinkins says he aimed to spoil Hyde-Smith, boost Colom voteCNBC · 3 days agoLongshot Mississippi Senate candidate Ty Pinkins at first wanted to win — but says he stayed in to spoil. Pinkins told a local TV station he remained in the race after an April poll showed he had no chance to boost Democratic nominee Scott…
NAACP President Lays Out Major Concerns As Deadline Nears For Mississippi Senate Race CertificationForbes · 6 h agoOn “Forbes Newsroom,” NAACP President Derrick Johnson discussed the still-unresolved Mississippi Senate race in which Democrat Scott Colom is up by about 2500 against Rpublican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith, the NAACP’s efforts to ensure all…
Colom leads Mississippi Senate race, Hyde-Smith says she is 'not backing down' | Live Updates from Fox News DigitalFox News · 2 days agoDemocrat Scott Colom has maintained a razor-thin lead over his Republican opponent, Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, in the race to become Mississippi's next senator. Should Colom win, he'd become the state's first Black U.S. senator since…
Mississippi Senate Race Hangs on Thousands of Affidavit Ballots - The Daily SignalThe Daily Signal · 3 h agoHome – Election Integrity – Mississippi Senate Race Hangs on Thousands of Affidavit Ballots Mississippi has significantly more voters who cast affidavit ballots than the number of votes separating the two Senate candidates in the closely…
Mississippi Senate race still neck-and-neckNBC News · 4 days agoNBC News
What We Need to Know: Mississippi Senate Race Too Close to Call as Violence Mars Another HBCU HomecomingBlack America Web · 13 h agoMississippi's closely contested Senate race faces new scrutiny as violence disrupts homecoming celebrations at a historically Black university, raising fresh questions about security and safety Mississippi's Senate race remains razor-thin…
Colom winning Mississippi Senate race would be ‘indication for what’s to come’ in 2028: GlaudeMS NOW · 31 h agoThe Senate races in Alaska and Mississippi are still too close to call. MS NOW Reporter Maya Eaglin is in Jackson with the latest details. Princeton University Professor and Mississippi native Eddie Glaude joins Alicia Menendez to weigh…

Related markets

All senate ›

Elections › Senate

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

98%None

None98%
AK1%
All 7<1%▼ 3

125 more

AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, OH, TX<1%▼ 2
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI<1%
AK, IA, KS, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, TX<1%▼ 3
AK, IA, ME, MI<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH<1%
AK, IA, ME, TX<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH<1%
AK, KS, ME, TX<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH<1%
AK, KS, MI, TX<1%
AK, KS, OH, TX<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
IA, KS, ME, OH<1%
IA, KS, ME, TX<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
IA, KS, OH, TX<1%
IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
KS, ME, MI, TX<1%

Elections › Senate

Alaska Senate winner? (2026)

98%Democratic party

Democratic party98%▲ 1
Republican party2%▼ 1

Elections › Senate

Next Senate Democratic Leader? (2028)

88%Chuck Schumer

Chuck Schumer88%▼ 3
Chris Van Hollen10%▲ 3
Brian Schatz1%▼ 1

10 more

Chris Murphy1%
Mark Warner<1%
Cory Booker<1%
Raphael Warnock<1%
Amy Klobuchar<1%
Patty Murray<1%
Tammy Baldwin<1%
Jon Ossoff<1%▼ 1
Ruben Gallego<1%
Jacky Rosen<1%

Elections › Senate

Next Senate Majority Leader?

89%Chuck Schumer

Chuck Schumer89%▼ 4
Chris Van Hollen10%▲ 5
Brian Schatz1%▼ 1

8 more

John Thune<1%
John Barrasso<1%
Steve Daines<1%
Tom Cotton<1%
Amy Klobuchar<1%
Patty Murray<1%
Cory Booker<1%
Mark Kelly<1%

Elections › Senate

Alaska Senate Election Winner

99%Mary Peltola

Mary Peltola99%
Sen. Dan Sullivan1%
Ann Diener<1%

4 more

Dustin Darden<1%
Richard Grayson<1%
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.<1%
David Leslie<1%

Elections › Senate

Mississippi Senate winner? (2026)

99%Scott Colom

Scott Colom99%
Cindy Hyde-Smith2%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onthe Associated Press

MeasuredNov 3, 2026 10:00 AM ET

Trading closesJan 4, 2027 12:00 AM ET

Traded$7K (15,302 contracts)

Today$2.6K

This week$7K

At stake$3.9K

In the news13 headlines today, 234 this week

Followed here sinceNov 4, 2026

The rules

If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 Mississippi U.S. Senate election before 12:00 AM ET on Nov 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

The race

The candidates, the incumbent, every market on this race and its coverage: the race on 4Progressives Politics ›

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions