Midterms: Blue trickle? (2026)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Feb 1, 2027 · $160 today · $246K traded · $121K at stake · prices read 36 min ago

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The odds

99%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 92% on Oct 20, 99% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Yes 99% 98¢ 99¢ $1.01 249.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Midterms, Blue

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Elections › Senate

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

98%None
  • None98%
  • AK1%
  • All 7<1%▼ 3
125 more
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, OH<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, TX<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, OH, TX<1%▼ 2
  • AK, IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, ME<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, MI<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, TX<1%▼ 3
  • AK, IA, ME, MI<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, MI<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, OH<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, KS, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, OH<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
  • IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
Elections › Senate

Next Senate Democratic Leader? (2028)

88%Chuck Schumer
  • Chuck Schumer88%▼ 3
  • Chris Van Hollen12%▲ 5
  • Brian Schatz1%▼ 1
10 more
  • Chris Murphy1%
  • Mark Warner<1%
  • Cory Booker<1%
  • Raphael Warnock<1%
  • Amy Klobuchar<1%
  • Patty Murray<1%
  • Tammy Baldwin<1%
  • Jon Ossoff<1%
  • Ruben Gallego<1%
  • Jacky Rosen<1%
KalshiCloses Dec 31, 2028 · $272K today
Elections › Senate

Next Senate Majority Leader?

89%Chuck Schumer
  • Chuck Schumer89%▼ 5
  • Chris Van Hollen9%▲ 4
  • Brian Schatz1%▼ 1
8 more
  • John Thune<1%
  • John Barrasso<1%
  • Steve Daines<1%
  • Tom Cotton<1%
  • Amy Klobuchar<1%
  • Patty Murray<1%
  • Cory Booker<1%
  • Mark Kelly<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions