Midterms: Biggest blue wave since 2008?

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Feb 1, 2027 · $10.8K traded · $7.1K at stake · prices read 6 min ago

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The odds

96%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 6% on Nov 2, 96% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Yes 96% 93¢ 98¢ $1.02 11.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Midterms, Biggest

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  • ‘Friday Follies’: The biggest losers of the midtermsFox News · 3 days agoFox News ‘Friday Follies’: The biggest losers of the midterms Fox News contributor Raymond Arroyo and Fox News host Laura Ingraham celebrate 9 years of ‘The Ingraham Angle’ and find bright spots from the midterms.
  • Biggest Polling Misses of the 2026 Midterm ElectionsNewsweek · 5 days agoNov 04, 2026 at 04:38 PM EST Final polling averages underestimated Democratic support in several of the most consequential races of the 2026 midterm elections, including contests for the U.S. Senate and state governorships. The clearest…
  • The Midterms’ Biggest Loser Is Elon MuskRolling Stone · 5 days agoElon Musk threw hundreds of millions of dollars down the drain and lost every major race that mattered in the 2026 midterm elections. Elon Musk tried to buy an election. Several elections, in fact. All told, the world’s richest man pumped…
  • Was Elon Musk the US midterms' biggest loser? – Stateside with Kai and Carterthe Guardian · 5 days agoThe tech industry spent big on the midterms, but it turned out to be a poor investment. Elon Musk poured a staggering $446m dollars into Republican-aligned political action committees (Pacs) and groups since last year, but his efforts…
  • The biggest winners and losers of the 2026 midterm electionsCNN · 5 days agoThe results are still rolling in on the 2026 midterm elections. But the overall contours of what just happened are already obvious: A historic Democratic victory, and a historic setback for what is now the lame-duck presidency of Donald…
  • DOUG SCHOEN: The biggest winner and the biggest loser in the 2026 midtermsFox News · 6 days agoThe ‘FOX News Democracy 26’ panel discusses what the GOP takeaways should be and how Democrats might work with President Donald Trump. The big winner in the midterms on Tuesday night was the Democratic Party. And the big loser of the 2026…
  • The Biggest Pro-AI Super Pac Network Didn’t Really Impact the MidtermsWIRED · 5 days agoLeading the Future, the biggest pro-AI super PAC network, is walking away from the midterm elections with just over $20 million still in the bank and a roster of dozens of successful congressional candidates from both sides of the aisle…
  • The biggest hurdles Democrats face on affordabilityCBS News · 3 days agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Biggest hurdles…
  • The US-Israel Alliance Is the Midterms’ Biggest LoserAlgemeiner.com · 3 days agoFriday, November 6th | 26 Heshvan 5787 The Democrats’ anti-Israel evolution appears to be nearing completion following this week’s midterm election results, which showcased a slew of hard-left candidates cruising to victory. The…
  • Democrats on verge of biggest House gain since Watergate wipeoutCNN · 4 days agoCNN Democrats on verge of biggest House gain since Watergate wipeout The blue wave continues with Democrats now just two seats away from their biggest win in the House since the Watergate wipeout of Republicans in 1974.
  • Op-Ed: JD Vance Is Biggest Loser of the MidtermsNewser · 3 days agoJD Vance's name didn't appear on a single ballot, but Matthew Schmitz argues in a New York Times op-ed that the vice president was the midterms' "biggest... Op-Ed: JD Vance Is Biggest Loser of the Midterms JD Vance's name didn't appear on…
  • France sees biggest turnout so far on day of demonstrations. What happens next?CNN · 4 days agoFrance sees biggest turnout so far on day of demonstrations Thursday. What is next? CNN France sees biggest turnout so far on day of demonstrations. What happens next? About 575,000 protesters participated in demonstrations across France…

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All senate ›
Elections › Senate

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

98%None
  • None98%
  • AK1%
  • All 7<1%▼ 3
125 more
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, OH<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, TX<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, OH, TX<1%▼ 2
  • AK, IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, ME<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, MI<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, TX<1%▼ 3
  • AK, IA, ME, MI<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, MI<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, OH<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, KS, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, OH<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
  • IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
Elections › Senate

Next Senate Democratic Leader? (2028)

88%Chuck Schumer
  • Chuck Schumer88%▼ 3
  • Chris Van Hollen12%▲ 5
  • Brian Schatz1%▼ 1
10 more
  • Chris Murphy1%
  • Mark Warner<1%
  • Cory Booker<1%
  • Raphael Warnock<1%
  • Amy Klobuchar<1%
  • Patty Murray<1%
  • Tammy Baldwin<1%
  • Jon Ossoff<1%
  • Ruben Gallego<1%
  • Jacky Rosen<1%
KalshiCloses Dec 31, 2028 · $272K today
Elections › Senate

Next Senate Majority Leader?

89%Chuck Schumer
  • Chuck Schumer89%▼ 5
  • Chris Van Hollen9%▲ 4
  • Brian Schatz1%▼ 1
8 more
  • John Thune<1%
  • John Barrasso<1%
  • Steve Daines<1%
  • Tom Cotton<1%
  • Amy Klobuchar<1%
  • Patty Murray<1%
  • Cory Booker<1%
  • Mark Kelly<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions