When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave? (2027)

Kalshi Politics › Trump administration Closes Jul 1, 2027 · $310 traded · $310 at stake · prices read 9 h ago

The odds

72%Before Dec 2026

Before Dec 202672%
Before Jan 202789%▲ 1
Before Feb 202794%▲ 1
Before Mar 202796%
Before Apr 202797%
Before May 202797%
Before Jun 202797%
Before Jul 202797%

How the odds have moved

Before Mar 2027: 95% on Nov 8, 96% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Dec 2026	72%		70¢	73¢	$1.37	400
Before Jan 2027	89%	▲ 1	86¢	91¢	$1.10	27.00
Before Feb 2027	94%	▲ 1	89¢	98¢	$1.02
Before Mar 2027	96%		91¢		$1.05
Before Apr 2027	97%		93¢		$1.04
Before May 2027	97%		93¢		$1.04
Before Jun 2027	97%		94¢		$1.03
Before Jul 2027	97%		94¢		$1.03

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Trump's Cabinet

Search ›

Ron DeSantis warns incoming Democratic Senate majority will block Trump Cabinet picksFox News · 5 days agoFox News Ron DeSantis warns incoming Democratic Senate majority will block Trump Cabinet picks Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis warns that an incoming Democratic Senate majority means no Supreme Court Justice or major cabinet officials will be…
Who Will Leave Trump Cabinet Next? Trade on Prediction MarketsSports Betting Dime · 3 days agoBy Paul Lebowitz in Politics News With the midterm elections now in the rearview mirror, many are wondering: Who will leave the Trump Cabinet next? Republicans got blown off the field in a midterm massacre, losing in Senate races in swing…
Trump Cabinet member’s son-in-law wins House race to become youngest memberHeartlander News · 3 days ago(Daily Caller News Foundation) – The 26-year-old son-in-law of a Trump cabinet official will become the youngest member of the next Congress and the first born in the 2000s – after running a campaign aligned with the Make America Healthy…
Another Trump Cabinet official caught using taxpayer funds for partisan video: reportRaw Story · 3 days agoGovernment watchdog groups say Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth likely broke federal law by having Pentagon staff and taxpayer-funded resources produce a self-promotional video attacking Democrats as he fights to keep his job, The Washington…
'Unleash the Kraken': Democrats melt down as Stephen Miller explodes in fiery first speech as chief of staff, and Trump's cabinet gives taste of new era under 'Wartime Consigliere'Daily Mail · 3 days agoStephen Miller promised Donald Trump his 'unwavering commitment and total devotion' to the president's success as the MAGAverse praised the new Chief of Staff. Trump announced Friday that Miller would take over the powerful position on…
‘Head on a platter’: Dems smell blood as they circle a Trump Cabinet memberRaw Story · 4 days agoUS first lady Melania Trump passes a pen to Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) Robert F. Kennedy Jr. after signing President Donald Trump's executive order on women's health, which she spearheaded, in the Rose Garden at the White…
Will Marco Rubio quit Trump's Cabinet to run for president in 2028? Here's what he saidMathrubhumi English · 4 days agoRubio dismissed reports of a possible exit after Bloomberg claimed he had discussed stepping down with White House officials. Washington: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has dismissed reports that he is considering leaving the Trump…
Rubio resignation rumors roil Trump cabinet after midterm defeatsCHOSUNBIZ · 4 days agoAfter Republicans lost their majorities in both the House and Senate in the U.S. midterm elections, rumors are emerging that Secretary of State Marco Rubio, seen as a potential 2028 presidential contender, may resign. However, there has…
Is Marco Rubio Resigning From Trump Cabinet After Midterm Debacle? State Department RespondsTimesNow · 4 days agoUS Secretary of State Marco Rubio is facing speculation about his future in the Trump administration following reports that he could resign after the Republicans' crushing midterm losses and prepare for a potential 2028 presidential run…
23 people in Trump's cabinetMedianews.az · 5 days agoThere are 23 people in the cabinet of US President Donald Trump. The elected vice president is James David Pence, and Susan Wiles heads the White House apparatus. Born in 1946, Donald Trump is a member of the Republican Party. He defeated…
JACKSON THOMPSON: Dana White says he'll meet with Trump amid claim of White House press secretary job offerOutKick · 48 h agoFormer White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, in a Fox News Digital exclusive, offers a candid verdict on her successor's short-lived stint as Trump's press secretary and shares that she's advising the president as he picks another…
US Midterms: Democrats Surge In Congress, War In Iran And Trump Cabinet Face HeatIndia Today · 6 days agoA panel discussion analyses the political fallout of the US midterm elections as projections show significant gains for the Democratic Party in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Sanjeev Joshipura of Indiaspora notes that while a…

Related markets

All trump administration ›

Politics › Trump administration

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

37%Pete Hegseth

Pete Hegseth37%▼ 5
Will Scharf31%▼ 11
Trent McCotter28%▼ 9

37 more

Stanley Woodward28%▼ 6
Amy Gleason27%▼ 7
Christopher Landau26%▼ 1
Howard Lutnick25%▲ 5
Kash Patel23%▼ 1
Doug Collins21%▲ 1
Brad Cooper20%
Dan Caine20%▼ 2
Steven Cheung19%▼ 17
Kevin Hassett19%▲ 4
Linda McMahon18%▼ 3
Sergio Gor18%▼ 7
Peter Navarro17%▼ 1
Brooke Rollins17%
Marco Rubio14%▼ 2
Chris Wright14%
Doug Burgum14%
John Ratcliffe14%▲ 3
Scott Turner13%▲ 2
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.13%▼ 4
Steve Witkoff13%▼ 5
Mehmet Oz13%▼ 1
Bill Pulte13%▼ 1
Kelly Loeffler13%▼ 6
Joe Gebbia13%▲ 2
Jamieson Greer12%▲ 1
Mike Huckabee12%▲ 1
Tom Homan11%
Todd Blanche11%▼ 4
Rodney Scott10%
Sean Duffy10%▼ 1
Mike Waltz10%▼ 8
Russell Vought8%
Lee Zeldin8%▲ 1
Scott Bessent8%▼ 1
Tilman Fertitta8%▲ 2
Brendan Carr5%▼ 2

Politics › Trump administration

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

36%chance▼ 7

Politics › Trump administration

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

99%Susie Wiles

Susie Wiles99%▲ 75
None before 2027<1%▼ 17
J.D. Vance<1%▼ 1

18 more

Marco Rubio<1%▼ 17
Scott Bessent<1%▼ 2
Pete Hegseth<1%▼ 33
Doug Burgum<1%▼ 2
Brooke Rollins<1%▼ 1
Howard Lutnick<1%▼ 2
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%▼ 3
Scott Turner<1%
Sean Duffy<1%
Chris Wright<1%▼ 1
Linda McMahon<1%
Doug Collins<1%
Lee Zeldin<1%▼ 1
Russell T. Vought<1%
John Ratcliffe<1%
Jamieson Greer<1%▼ 1
Mike Waltz<1%▼ 2
Kelly Loeffler<1%▼ 1

Politics › Trump administration

Trump out as President before 2027?

2%chance

Politics › Trump administration

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

>99%October 31

October 31>99%▲ 89
December 31>99%▲ 67

Politics › Trump administration

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

>99%chance

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onBloomberg, White House, New York Times

Trading closesJul 1, 2027 12:00 AM ET

Traded$310 (427 contracts)

This week$310

At stake$310

In the news3 headlines today, 18 this week

Followed here sinceNov 6, 2026

The rules

If any member of Trump's Cabinet leaves their office, or announces they will leave their office, from Nov 6, 2026 at 3pm EST to Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions