Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Nov 6, 1 PM ETBefore Dec 1, 2026: 33% → 4%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Before Aug 24, 2026
2%
$50.00
313
Before Sep 1, 2026
6%
$16.67
660
Before Oct 1, 2026
1%
$100.00
5.0K
Before Nov 1, 2026
1%
$100.00
3.7K
Before Dec 1, 2026
5%
▼ 1
3¢
7¢
$14.29
3.2K
Before Jan 1, 2027
17%
99¢
$1.01
52.00
Before Apr 1, 2027
51%
2¢
99¢
$1.01
12.00
Before Sep 1, 2027
51%
2¢
99¢
$1.01
163
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Canada’s Trump Fixation FadesNational Review · 15 days agoReunion with Rome: An Orthodox Perspective Why Assisted Suicide Failed in Britain Could This Time Be Different on Ukraine? After trade talks between the U.S. and Canada collapsed in August, there were fears a new cold war would break out…
US, Canada ‘very close’ to tariff deal: WHNew York Post · 14 days agoThe US and Canada are “very close” to settling their tariff standoff, according to the White House. “The negotiations have picked up; they’re gathering steam,” said Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, to…
Indigenous Canadian group Crossword ClueUSA TODAY · 15 days agoAnswer help for Breaking Rank, featuring one of today's clues: Indigenous Canadian group, from USA TODAY Daily Crossword Puzzle creators. Indigenous Canadian group Crossword Clue In case you've faced some hurdles solving the clue…
Canadian cliff diver becomes first woman to dive from iceberg in NewfoundlandCBS News · 14 days agoCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Canadian cliff diver…
US to remove some Canadian tariffs ahead of electionssemafor.com · 15 days agoThe US announced plans to remove tariffs on certain Canadian products after an embattled Republican senator in Maine lobbied for the move as the White House looks to bolster its candidates ahead of Nov. 3. The US announced plans to remove…
US-Canada trade deal not as ‘close’ as portrayedsemafor.com · 14 days agoA US-Canada trade deal is likely not as imminent as some US officials indicated over the weekend. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Sunday that negotiators were “very close” to reaching an agreement that would ease the…
Carney says Trump moving closer to Canada’s trade demands as midterms loomThe Washington Post · 14 days agoCanadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says trade talks with the United States have intensified slightly but Canada is holding firm on its demands, insisting any progress is because Washington is moving closer to Ottawa’s position TORONTO —…
Canada trade deal 'very close' as PresidentTrump adjusts tariffsFox Business · 14 days agoNegotiations for a new Canada trade deal are gathering steam as President Donald Trump considers adjustments to import taxes. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett expresses optimism about reaching a final agreement…
Canada’s Plan B: Hedging Beyond the United StatesNew Eastern Outlook · 18 days agoIn September, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke of building a “unique alliance” between Canada and the European Union. The substance is less dramatic than the headlines, but more revealing. Ottawa wants deeper cooperation in…
President Trump announces upcoming Canada trade deal, lifts certain tariffsFox Business · 15 days agoVogel Group Managing Principal Samir Kapadia analyzes President Donald Trump's announcement of an upcoming trade deal with Canada. The discussion highlights the decision to exempt certain Canadian products from fifty percent tariffs to…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions