California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) (Nov 3, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › State & local Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $3.2K today · $38.4K traded · $17.4K at stake · prices read 24 min ago

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The odds

4.92%median
-2%25%
Median 4.92%Middle half 3.14% – 6.37%

How the odds have moved

Median: 4.69% on Oct 20, 4.92% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
No, ≥1% 98% ▼ 1 95¢ $1.03 17.4K
No, ≥4% 66% ▼ 25 42¢ 76¢ $1.32 26.0K
No, ≥7% 14% ▼ 6 9¢ 19¢ $5.26 26.4K
No, ≥10% 2% ▼ 2 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 23.4K
No, ≥13% 1% ▼ 1 2¢ $50.00 929
No, ≥16% 1% ▼ 1 1¢ $100.00 6.9K
No, ≥19% 1% 2¢ $50.00 2.3K
No, ≥22% 1% 1¢ $100.00 19.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: California Proposition

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  • California Proposition 37 resultsAP News · 5 days agoLive results for the 2026 California proposition 37 election. Track election results with real-time vote counts, county-level maps and race calls from AP. California Proposition 37 results When the nation waits for results, who do you…
  • California Proposition 39 resultsAP News · 6 days agoLive results for the 2026 California proposition 39 election. Track election results with real-time vote counts, county-level maps and race calls from AP. California Proposition 39 results When the nation waits for results, who do you…
  • Latest on California Propositions 3, 39 and 40 resuls in midtermsCBS News · 6 days agoCBS News Latest on California Propositions 3, 39 and 40 resuls in midterms Steve Hilton addresses crowd after CBS News projects Xavier Becerra next California governor Xavier Becerra speaks after CBS News projects him next California…
  • 2026 California Proposition 40 Election Live ResultsAP News · 7 days agoAP News California Proposition 40 results When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics journalists simply…
  • California Proposition 38 seeks to authorize state bonds for immunology medical researchCBS News · 6 days agoNovember 3, 2026 / 6:50 AM PST / CBS LA California voters are weighing Proposition 38, which would authorize the state to sell $8.4 billion in bonds to fund immunology research and therapies in state institutes and universities. This comes…
  • California Proposition 1 seeks to authorize state bonds for housing affordability programsCBS News · 6 days agoNovember 3, 2026 / 6:28 AM PST / CBS LA As California faces a housing affordability crisis, voters will weigh Proposition 1, which aims to alleviate the issue through bond funding. The proposition is a legislative measure that would allow…
  • California's Proposition 4 would allow statewide public financing of political campaignsCBS News · 6 days agoNovember 3, 2026 / 6:47 AM PST / CBS LA California voters are set to decide on Proposition 4, which would let local governments establish public financing for candidates for political office. If passed, the initiative would fund portions…
  • California Proposition 2 seeks to increase Rainy Day Fund deposit cap by 10%CBS News · 6 days agoNovember 3, 2026 / 6:43 AM PST / CBS LA California voters will determine whether to approve Proposition 2, a constitutional amendment that would increase the state's Rainy Day Fund deposit cap from 10% to 20% of its General Fund tax…
  • California propositions - Billionaire's tax, voter ID and more | LIVE RESULTSKTVU FOX 2 San Francisco · 6 days agoOAKLAND, Calif. - Tuesday was Election Day in the U.S., and across the Bay Area, California and nationwide, voters weighed in on the statewide gubernatorial race, propositions, congressional seats and more. One of the closely-watched…
  • California propositions 2026: A quick guide to help you voteSan Francisco Chronicle · 7 days agoA voter fills out a ballot at the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights Flex Vote Center on Friday in Los Angeles. California voters are making decisions on 14 ballot measures. Let’s just put it plainly: California’s November election is a…
  • California Proposition Roundup: Results So FarKQED · 6 days agoCalifornia voters are deciding the outcome of 14 state propositions, including measures to tax the wealth of billionaires, require voters to show ID, speed up environmental reviews and fund affordable housing, schools and healthcare…
  • 2026 elections: Track results for California Proposition 39KCRA · 7 days agoCalifornia voters will decide whether it will become the 37th state to require Voter ID. Proposition 39, if passed, would require government-issued identification for in-person voting and different verification for mail-in ballots. See…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions