Which ballot measures will pass in Alaska?

Kalshi Elections › State & local Closes Nov 2, 2027 · $3.5K today · $14.4K traded · $6.6K at stake · prices read 17 min ago

Embed

The odds

10%Ballot Measure 2
  • Ballot Measure 210%▲ 2

How the odds have moved

Ballot Measure 2: 38% on Oct 20, 10% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 4, 11 PM ETBallot Measure 2: 29% → 10%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
✓ Ballot Measure 3 99% ▲ 11 $1.01 13.6K
Ballot Measure 2 10% ▲ 2 5¢ 15¢ $6.67 9.7K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Alaska

Search ›
  • Trump declares Alaska Senate race ‘OVER’ and claims Republican wonNew York Post · 2 days agoPresident Trump declared the Senate race in Alaska “over” and his favored candidate Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) the winner — even though the outcome of his race against former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) was far from certain. Trump has…
  • GOP alleges spoiler scheme in Alaska Senate raceFox Business · 3 days agoFox Business GOP alleges spoiler scheme in Alaska Senate race 'Fox & Friends Weekend' co-host Charlie Hurt joins 'Kudlow' to discuss the 'Decoy Dan' controversy in Alaska and the GOP's next steps. 'Fox & Friends Weekend' co-host Charlie…
  • Alaska Election Officials Hit with Lawsuit from Mary Peltola CampaignNewsweek · 3 days agoNov 07, 2026 at 06:47 AM EST Nov 07, 2026 at 06:49 AM EST While Alaska’s Senate race still remains undecided days after November 3, Democrat Mary Peltola’s campaign has filed a lawsuit against Alaska election officials Friday, seeking…
  • The status of uncalled midterm races in Mississippi, Alaska, beyondCBS News · 3 days agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. The status of…
  • Alaska Ranked-Choice Voting Could Sink Challenge to Senate Result: AnalystsNewsweek · 3 days agoNov 06, 2026 at 11:31 AM EST Alaska’s voting system cancels out President Donald Trump’s continued calls for "decoy Dan" votes to be transferred to Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan, experts say. The state’s ranked-choice election…
  • Alaska Senate race tightens as 'Decoy Dan' scandal remains under speculationFox News · 3 days agoFox News Alaska Senate race tightens as 'Decoy Dan' scandal remains under speculation Tennessee Governor-elect Marsha Blackburn discusses the Alaska Senate race and the controversial 'Decoy Dan' scheme. Tennessee Governor-elect Marsha…
  • Alaska and Mississippi races still undecided as Democrats eye Senate seatsFox News · 3 days agoFox News Alaska and Mississippi races still undecided as Democrats eye Senate seats Fox News chief congressional correspondent Chad Pergram discusses recent election results as Alaska and Mississippi races are still undecided. Fox News…
  • FBI agents served an Alaska Senate candidate with a subpoena just days before election dayCNN · 3 days agoDays before the midterms, federal prosecutors ordered Gerald Heikes, a longshot Senate hopeful in Alaska, to appear before a grand jury with any records he has related to political groups and other candidates in the race, according to…
  • Alaska U.S. Senate election results 2026The Washington Post · 5 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R)…
  • Alaska Senate race remains too close to callFox News · 4 days agoFox News correspondent Matt Finn and Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy join ‘America Reports’ to discuss the razor-thin Alaska Senate race between Republican Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola. Alaska Senate race remains too close to call Fox…
  • Vote count continues in Alaska’s tight US Senate raceFox News · 4 days agoFox News Vote count continues in Alaska’s tight US Senate race Fox News correspondent Matt Finn reports on how the ‘decoy’ candidate scandal in Alaska is impacting its unique ranked choice voting system on ‘Special Report.’
  • What's next as Mississippi, Alaska Senate races still too close to callCBS News · 4 days agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. What's next in…

Related markets

All state & local ›

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions