Predictions › Elections State & local odds Every State & local market on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com: the odds, the money behind them, the biggest moves and the news.
% US Dec
7,691 open markets · $13.9M traded today Trending state & local markets
Proposition 5 100% ▲ 3 Proposition 38 99% ▲ 1 Proposition 42 94% ▼ 1 Proposition 4 58% ▲ 17 3 more Proposition 43 2% Proposition 41 2% Proposition 45 1%
Nithya Raman, 8-10% 93% ▲ 8 Nithya Raman, 10-12% 7% ▼ 10 Nithya Raman, 14-16% 1% Nithya Raman, 16-18% 1% 6 more Nithya Raman, ≥18% 1% ▼ 1 Nithya Raman, 0-2% <1% Nithya Raman, 2-4% <1% Nithya Raman, 4-6% <1% Nithya Raman, 6-8% <1% Nithya Raman, 12-14% <1% ▼ 1
Zoran Janković 57% ▼ 6 Luka Mesec 37% ▲ 1 Anton Rop 1% Klemen Boštjančič <1% 7 more Aleksandar Repić <1% Aleš Vrhovec <1% Gregor Novak <1% Jasmin Feratović <1% Aleš Primc <1% Mihael Jarc <1% Apolonija Simon <1%
0% 18%
Median 9.12% Middle half 8.53% – 9.72%
Initiative No. IL26-001 14%
Helen Zille 55% ▼ 10 Herman Mashaba 25% ▲ 1 Lukhona Mnguni 4% ▼ 2 Loyiso Masuku 3% 4 more David Makhura 3% Dada Morero 3% Frank Chikane 2% ▲ 1 Kenny Kunene 1% ▼ 2
John Kulewicz 99% ▲ 1 Keith Faber 1% ▼ 1
-2% 25%
Median 4.92% Middle half 3.14% – 6.37%
Jeremy Matlow 99% Loranne Ausley 1%
Alexi Giannoulias 73% ▲ 4 Brandon Johnson 11% Susana Mendoza 8% ▼ 3 Willie Wilson 4% ▼ 1 13 more Mike Quigley 3% ▼ 1 Matt Brewer 1% ▲ 1 Maria Pappas 1% Joe Holberg 1% George Cardenas <1% Liam Stanton <1% Lisa Madigan <1% Lisa Nee <1% John Kitover <1% Toni Brooks <1% Rahm Emanuel <1% Paul Vallas <1% Kam Buckner <1%
Republican party 97% ▲ 4 Democratic party 2% ▼ 2
Janesville, Wisconsin GM/JATCO referendum 97% Emporia, Kansas Question 2 97% Piqua, Ohio Section 138 amendment 97% Grove City, Ohio Issue 28 97% 6 more Trenton, Ohio Issue 17 97% El Dorado, Kansas data center ordinance 96% ▲ 1 Alhambra, California Measure DB 96% ▲ 1 Boulder City, Nevada Question 1 5% ▲ 1 Ashville, Ohio EdgeConneX referendum 5% Joliet Township, Illinois advisory question 5%
Democratic party 69% ▲ 6 Republican party 16% ▲ 4
Zohran Mamdani 79% ▲ 1 Jessica Tisch 7% ▲ 1 Eric Adams 4% Mark Levine 1% 8 more Brad Lander 1% Letitia James 1% Curtis Sliwa 1% Julie Menin 1% Donald Trump 1% Bill Ackman 1% Dave Portnoy 1% Andrew Cuomo <1%
RSP 60% ▲ 10 UML 14% ▲ 3 Congress 12% ▼ 7 Independent 9% 1 more
Alexi Giannoulias 73% Brandon Johnson 9% Maria Pappas 5% ▲ 3 Joe Holberg 5% 3 more Rahm Emanuel 2% Paul Vallas 2% Kam Buckner <1%
Pat Proctor 94% Jennifer Day 4% Scott Morgan 1%
Republican party 98% Democratic party 2%
36% 60%
Median 47.27% Middle half 46.6% – 47.95%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use . How to use Predictions