Which ballot measures will pass in California? (2026)
100%Proposition 5
- Proposition 5100%▲ 3
- Proposition 3899%▲ 1
- Proposition 4294%▼ 1
4 more
- Proposition 458%▲ 17
- Proposition 432%
- Proposition 412%
- Proposition 451%
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Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nov 3, 2026)
The odds
93%Nithya Raman, 8-10%
- Nithya Raman, 8-10%93%▲ 8
- Nithya Raman, 10-12%7%▼ 10
- Nithya Raman, 14-16%1%
- Nithya Raman, 16-18%1%
- Nithya Raman, ≥18%1%▼ 1
- Nithya Raman, 0-2%<1%
- Nithya Raman, 2-4%<1%
- Nithya Raman, 4-6%<1%
- Nithya Raman, 6-8%<1%
- Nithya Raman, 12-14%<1%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Nithya Raman, 8-10%: 4% on Oct 28, 93% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 8, 11 PM ETNithya Raman, 8-10%: 50% → 82%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Nov 6, 9 PM ETNithya Raman, 8-10%: 79% → 61%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nithya Raman, 8-10% | 93% | ▲ 8 | 93¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 22.9K |
| Nithya Raman, 10-12% | 7% | ▼ 10 | 6¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 4.9K |
| Karen Bass, ≥12% | 1% | ▲ 1 | $100.00 | 1.3K | ||
| Karen Bass, 10-12% | 1% | ▲ 1 | $100.00 | 1.5K | ||
| Karen Bass, 8-10% | 1% | ▲ 1 | $100.00 | 2.5K | ||
| Karen Bass, 6-8% | 1% | ▲ 1 | $100.00 | 3.8K | ||
| Karen Bass, 4-6% | 1% | ▲ 1 | $100.00 | 3.7K | ||
| Karen Bass, 2-4% | 1% | ▲ 1 | $100.00 | 7.8K | ||
| Karen Bass, 0-2% | 1% | ▲ 1 | $100.00 | 4.3K | ||
| Nithya Raman, 14-16% | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 4.0K | ||
| Nithya Raman, 16-18% | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 4.5K | ||
| Nithya Raman, ≥18% | 1% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 4.1K | |
| Nithya Raman, 0-2% | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 8.1K | ||
| Nithya Raman, 2-4% | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 7.5K | ||
| Nithya Raman, 4-6% | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 7.0K | ||
| Nithya Raman, 6-8% | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 8.6K | ||
| Nithya Raman, 12-14% | <1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | $100.00 | 3.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Los Angeles
Search ›- Los Angeles elects Nithya Raman as socialist mayoral wave growsDemocratic socialist mayors expand their reach across major American cities as Nithya Raman defeats Karen Bass in the Los Angeles mayoral race. Joining Zohran Mamdani under socialist leadership, Raman highlights homelessness, housing…
- Democratic socialist Nithya Raman wins Los Angeles mayoral raceFox News Democratic socialist Nithya Raman wins Los Angeles mayoral race Fox News' Christina Coleman reports on Nithya Raman's victory in the Los Angeles mayoral race. Fox News' Christina Coleman reports on Democratic socialist Nithya…
- Democratic socialist Nithya Raman will be Los Angeles' next mayorNPR Democratic socialist Nithya Raman will be Los Angeles' next mayor Democratic socialist Nithya Raman has been elected Los Angeles mayor, over incumbent Karen Bass. NPR does not offer or accept money for coverage or interviews. Become an…
- Nithya Raman celebrates projected win in Los Angeles mayor's raceCBS News Los Angeles is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KCAL-TV and channel 9, CBS News Los Angeles offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Nithya Raman…
- Nithya Raman wins Los Angeles mayoral race, NBC News projectsNithya Raman will be the next mayor of Los Angeles after defeating incumbent Karen Bass. NBC News' Andres Gutierrez has more on next steps from Raman and other city officials as she makes the transition to her new role. Nithya Raman wins…
- Democratic socialist defeats incumbent Karen Bass in Los Angeles mayor's raceDemocratic socialist Nithya Raman has toppled incumbent Karen Bass in the race for mayor of Los Angeles. Raman's win stunned political watchers in California after she entered the race as a long-shot candidate against Bass, a political…
- Nithya Raman defeats Karen Bass in Los Angeles mayor's race, CBS News projectsCBS News Los Angeles is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KCAL-TV and channel 9, CBS News Los Angeles offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Nithya Raman…
- Democratic socialist Nithya Raman defeats Karen Bass to win Los Angeles mayoral race – videoThe Guardian Democratic socialist Nithya Raman defeats Karen Bass to win Los Angeles mayoral race – video Nithya Raman declared victory in the Los Angeles mayoral race after the incumbent, Karen Bass, conceded. Raman vowed to 'build…
- Nithya Raman elected as Los Angeles mayor, defeating incumbent Karen BassCBS News Los Angeles is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KCAL-TV and channel 9, CBS News Los Angeles offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Nithya Raman…
- Democratic socialist Nithya Raman wins Los Angeles mayoral race over incumbent Karen BassMajor shake-up as LA councilmember, once considered long shot, ousts Democratic rival she had once endorsed Nithya Raman was elected to serve as the mayor of Los Angeles, eking out a narrow win over incumbent Karen Bass, in a major…
- Democratic socialist Nithya Raman defeats Karen Bass in the Los Angeles mayor’s raceCity Council member Nithya Raman has defeated incumbent Karen Bass in the Los Angeles mayoral race, NBC News projects, capping off a rapid political ascent for a progressive challenger who railed against the “broken status quo” in the…
- Who is Nithya Raman, the democratic socialist who will be Los Angeles’s next mayor?Urban planner and outsider who bested Karen Bass has close ties to Hollywood progressives – and a complicated relationship with the DSA Nithya Raman on Thursday unseated Los Angeles mayor Karen Bass after a neck-and-neck race for the…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions