Colombia rate decision in December (Dec 18, 2026 meeting)

Kalshi Economy › Central banks Closes Dec 18 · $43 today · $2.6K traded · $1.5K at stake · prices read 56 min ago

The odds

61%Maintain current rate

Maintain current rate61%
Hike 1-25bps30%
Cut 1-25bps3%
Hike more than 25bps3%▲ 1
Cut more than 25bps3%

How the odds have moved

Maintain current rate: 57% on Oct 28, 61% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Maintain current rate	61%		61¢	62¢	$1.61	1.0K
Hike 1-25bps	30%		30¢	32¢	$3.13	5.7K
Cut 1-25bps	3%		1¢	6¢	$16.67	3.3K
Hike more than 25bps	3%	▲ 1	1¢	6¢	$16.67	1.3K
Cut more than 25bps	3%			6¢	$16.67	20.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Colombia

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¿Ejercicios militares de EE.UU. en Colombia?Fox News · 4 days agoFox News ¿Ejercicios militares de EE.UU. en Colombia? Unos 350 efectivos de las Fuerzas Armadas de EE.UU. llegan a la base de Tolemaida para ejercicios antinarcóticos de gran escala.
Colombia Stocks Flat as Peso Slips | Colombia Market Report, Nov 6The Rio Times · 3 days agoA flat index can hide a restless market, and Friday was a case in point. The COLCAP edged up 0.03% to 2,485, while the dollar climbed 0.34% to 3,238 Colombian pesos. The bigger picture is kinder to the peso than the day suggests. The…
Colombian Firms Back Brazil Before Lula WinThe Rio Times · 2 days agoColombian companies are deepening their bets on Brazil in oil and power lines, but the biggest deals were signed months before Lula won a fourth term. Colombian companies have spent 2026 expanding in Brazil, and Ecopetrol completed a major…
Colombia’s Southern Bolívar Violence ExplainedThe Rio Times · 42 h agoSouthern Bolívar violence is now at the centre of Colombia’s security debate after drones hit an army base on Saturday 7 November 2026. The region, in the north of the country, is a gold-mining area where three armed groups compete for…
Colombia October Producer Prices Up 4.54%The Rio Times · 3 days agoRio Times Markets · Colombia The prices Colombian farms, mines and factories charge for their goods jumped in October, and a very weak month a year earlier explains part of the rise. Colombia’s producer price index, which tracks what…
Drones Hit Colombian Army Base, 3 DeadThe Rio Times · 2 days agoExplosive-laden drones hit an army base in northern Colombia on Saturday, and the Army reports three soldiers dead while the culprits remain unknown. Drones carrying explosives struck an army base in northern Colombia around midday on…
Colombia Eases Rules for Ecopetrol Gas WellThe Rio Times · 3 days agoFor US investors the fine print matters more than the headline: the permit itself dates from December 2024, and the new resolution only removes extra checks that Anadarko said made the project hard to run. The resolution is about permit…
Colombia Leader Backs Aide After Home EntryThe Rio Times · 2 days agoColombia’s president has publicly defended a senior aide after three people with criminal records were found inside the aide’s home, though the facts of the case remain unclear. Three people with judicial records were found inside the home…
Gunmen Kill Three Women in Colombian HomeThe Rio Times · 2 days agoThree women were found dead inside a home in Toro, a town in the Valle del Cauca department of southwest Colombia, on Friday 6 November. Armed men attacked them, local authorities say. Indepaz, a Colombian research group that tracks…
Boca and Atlético Mineiro Meet in ColombiaThe Rio Times · 2 days agoTwo of South America’s biggest clubs meet in Barranquilla on Saturday, 21 November, with one match deciding the Copa Sudamericana. Our Copa Sudamericana final 2026 hub carries every update. The kick-off time and the ticket sale are now…
Colombia’s proposed tax overhaul could double craft beer pricesVinetur · 3 days agoSaturday, November 7, 2026 Colombia’s liquor and craft beer industry warned on Friday, November 6, that the government’s proposed tax reform could sharply raise retail prices, cut sales and put added pressure on small brewers that make…
New Blast Hits Colombia Highway Toll BoothThe Rio Times · 2 days agoExplosives, preliminarily said to have been dropped by drones, damaged the Mondomo toll booth on a main highway in Cauca, southwestern Colombia, early on Saturday 7 November 2026. No injuries were reported, but it is the latest in a run of…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onBanco de la República, Trading Economics

Trading closesDec 18, 2026 1:59 PM ET

Traded$2.6K (11,469 contracts)

Today$43

This week$227

At stake$1.5K

In the news93 headlines today, 391 this week

Followed here sinceOct 27, 2026

The rules

If the Banco de la República takes the action of cut more than 25bps at its December Policy Rate Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions