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Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?
The odds
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%▲ 11
- No change21%▼ 13
- 50+ bps increase1%▼ 1
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How the odds have moved
25 bps increase: 46% on Oct 20, 76% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 9, 8 PM ET25 bps increase: 64% → 76%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Oct 28, 11 PM ET25 bps increase: 56% → 72%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Oct 21, 7 PM ET25 bps increase: 53% → 47%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps increase | 76% | ▲ 11 | 73¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | $32K |
| No change | 21% | ▼ 13 | 19¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | $20.8K |
| 50+ bps increase | 1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | 2¢ | $52.63 | $4.4K |
| 25 bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $3.9K | ||
| 50+ bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $3.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Search ›- Australian and New Zealand dollars rise as US dollar weakens following midterm electionsThe Australian and New Zealand dollars strengthened on Thursday, November 5, benefiting from a weaker US dollar as investors continued to assess the implications of Democratic victories in the congressional elections. The New Zealand…
- New Zealand central bank hits Westpac with charge over disclosure breachSYDNEY/WELLINGTON (Nov 6): The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) said on Friday that it hit the local unit of Westpac with a charge alleging it breached disclosure rules for the country's Depositor Compensation Scheme. The Depositor…
- ASB tips higher mortgage rates despite Reserve Bank’s surprise holdSix-month fixed is cheapest, but economists expect every term to rise ASB economists expect mortgage rates to keep climbing across every term, even after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly left the official cash rate (OCR)…
- New Zealand Banks Leave Floating Mortgage, On-Call Savings Rates Unchanged After RBNZ Hold, FMA SaysNew Zealand banks left their floating mortgage and on-call savings rates unchanged following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's October monetary policy review, with the official cash rate maintained... New Zealand Banks Leave Floating…
- BoE raises rates as Australia's RBA may pause hikesSeveral major central banks have raised interest rates recently, each at different stages of their tightening cycles. Policymakers are cautious of inflation, with interest rate outlooks influenced by Middle East conflict developments and…
- Bank of New Zealand gains home loan share as margins shrinkMore than half of 7,500-plus buyers were first-timers Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) grew its home loan book by $4.9 billion in the year to 30 September 2026, gaining market share for a fourth consecutive year even as competition pressured its…
- NZD/USD Price Analysis: Struggles to make it through 100-SMA hurdle near 0.5650 on H4The NZD/USD pair gains positive traction for the second straight day on Thursday, building on the previous day's recovery from the 0.5575 area, or a three-week low. The momentum lifts spot prices to an over one-week high, around the…
- New Zealand Dollar's Recovery Against the Pound to Stay ShallowThe New Zealand dollar is recovering some of the ground it lost after Tuesday's jobs data as markets steady their bets on a December interest rate hike at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Markets cut the odds of a December hike to…
- New Zealand Dollar Needs a December RBNZ Hike to Staunch the LossesImage © Reserve Bank of New Zealand A New Zealand dollar recovery depends on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raising interest rates in December, a move Governor Anna Breman says is likely. A December hike would lift the return on…
- Revolut completes fundraising process establishing $115 billion valuationRevolut closes fundraising at $115B valuation, led by Coatue, Baillie Gifford and others amid bank launches in UK, Mexico, Australia and beyond. LONDON, 4 November 2026: Revolut, the global financial leader with over 80 million retail…
- New Zealand Dollar firms on USD weakness despite highest NZ jobless rate in 11 yearsNZD/USD rebounds on Wednesday, trading around 0.5620, up 0.19% on the day at the time of writing. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) benefits from a broad weakening of the US Dollar (USD) following the US midterm elections, allowing the pair to…
- NZ unemployment hits 11-year highJobless rate rises to 5.7% while wage growth trails inflation New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to 5.7% in the September quarter as employment unexpectedly fell and wage growth stayed well behind inflation, according to new Stats NZ…
Related markets
All central banks ›Bank of England decision in December?
58%No change
- No change58%
- 25 bps increase42%▲ 4
- 25 bps decrease<1%
2 more
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- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Bank of Brazil decision in December?
89%No Change
- No Change89%▲ 1
- 25 bps decrease7%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease2%
2 more
- 25 bps increase1%
- 50+ bps increase1%
Bank of Canada Decision in December?
68%No Change
- No Change68%▼ 6
- 25 bps increase30%▲ 5
- 25 bps decrease<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Bank of Russia decision in December?
82%No change
- No change82%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease14%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase3%▼ 1
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- 50+ bps increase1%
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Bank of Japan rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)
77%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps77%▲ 6
- Maintain current rate22%▼ 4
- Cut 25bps1%
2 more
- Hike more than 25bps1%
- Cut more than 25bps<1%▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions