Bank of Brazil decision in December?

Polymarket Economy › Central banks Closes Dec 9 · $4K today · $68.7K traded · $4.8K at stake · prices read 24 min ago

The odds

89%No Change

No Change89%▲ 1
25 bps decrease7%▲ 1
50+ bps decrease2%
25 bps increase1%
50+ bps increase1%

How the odds have moved

No Change: 19% on Oct 20, 89% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Nov 4, 11 PM ETNo Change: 65% → 75%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.
Oct 30, 11 PM ETNo Change: 53% → 58%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
No Change	89%	▲ 1	88¢	90¢	$1.11	$25.1K
25 bps decrease	7%	▲ 1	6¢	8¢	$12.05	$20.3K
50+ bps decrease	2%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	$9.4K
25 bps increase	1%		1¢	2¢	$62.50	$7.8K
50+ bps increase	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$6.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Bank of Brazil

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Ueno Bank vs Nubank Differ Beyond the AppThe Rio Times · 3 days agoOn Saturday 7 November 2026, Paraguay’s failed Ueno Bank and Brazil’s Nubank, a digital bank listed in New York, look alike on one point only: both won millions of customers fast through a phone app. They differ sharply in size, funding…
Brazil Court Orders Freezing of Up to BRL 3.48 Billion in Illegal Betting InvestigationiGamingToday.com - News · 3 days agoThe Civil Police of the Federal District (PCDF) of Brazil is conducting Operation Azzardo to investigate the illegal operation of betting platforms and the financial networks allegedly involved in these operations. The Department for…
Brazil police investigate fintech A55 in $135 mn illegal betting probe@BeinsureMedia · 3 days agoBrazilian police have launched a major investigation into an alleged illegal betting and money laundering network that used shell companies and financial institutions to process hundreds of millions of reais in transactions. The Federal…
Brazil Central Bank Halts Rate Cuts After Lula's Reelection; Policy Rate Seen at 13.75% Through 2028BigGo Finance · 4 days agoMarket positioning had already shifted before the hold. Investment platform XP had revised its base-case scenario to a 13.75% rate for all of 2027 just before the COPOM meeting. Chief Economist Caio Megale analyzed that the decision…
São Paulo Rents by Neighborhood in 2026The Rio Times · 4 days agoSão Paulo’s rent map runs from R$100.1 to R$49.2 per m², a gap of about two to one. A 60 m² flat in Pinheiros asks about R$6,010 (about US$1,110) a month, while the same size in Santana asks about R$2,950 (about US$545). Our numbers come…
Brazilian Real: Rate-cut pause but medium-term gains – CommerzbankFXStreet · 6 days agoCommerzbank’s Norman Liebke expects the Central Bank of Brazil to pause its rate-cutting cycle at 13.75% amid fiscal and inflation concerns after Lula’s re-election. He notes unanchored inflation expectations but argues this is only a…
Florianópolis Rents by Neighborhood in 2026The Rio Times · 5 days agoFlorianópolis, a city built mostly on an island in southern Brazil, has the fifth-highest average rent of the 22 capital cities Fipe tracks. A 60 m² flat asks about R$2,720 to R$4,100 (about US$505 to US$755) a month, depending on the…
Rio de Janeiro Rents by Neighborhood in 2026The Rio Times · 5 days agoRio de Janeiro is one city with a three-to-one gap in rents. A 60 m² flat in Leblon asks about R$7,480 (about US$1,385) a month, while the same size in Tijuca asks about R$2,330 (about US$430). Our numbers come from the FipeZAP Residential…
Rising Rate Pressures Make Founder-Controlled Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI), Nu Holdings (NYSE: NU) And Figure Technology Solutions (NYSE: FIGR) Worth A Closer Lookforeignpolicyjournal.com · 7 days agoBy Ewan Scott | Nov 2, 2026 | Economy & Business, Featured, News & Analysis With borrowing costs still squeezing capital-intensive technology ventures, investors are increasingly turning to companies where founders retain meaningful equity…
Lula Can Fill Six Brazil Central Bank SeatsThe Rio Times · 7 days agoBrazil’s central bank has two empty chairs at its table, and the president who just won re-election holds the pen for four more. By the end of 2027, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s leftist president, can name six of the nine people who…
Brazil Denies Plan to Cap Interest RatesThe Rio Times · 7 days agoBrazil’s government is putting out a fire it says it never lit. Finance Minister Dario Durigan denied on Monday that officials are weighing a cap on interest rates, a day before the central bank starts its rate-setting meeting. The rumour…
Brazil crypto licensing draws just 40 firms as deadline passescrypto.news · 8 days agoBrazil’s cryptocurrency industry has seen far fewer companies enter the country’s new licensing process than initially expected, with roughly 40 institutions identified ahead of the October 30 deadline. According to an assessment cited by…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 9, 2026 6:59 AM ET

Traded$68.7K

Today$4K

This week$15.6K

At stake$4.8K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Polic

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions