Czech National Bank rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)

Kalshi Economy › Central banks Closes Dec 17 · $190 today · $3K traded · $3K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

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The odds

94%Maintain current rate
  • Maintain current rate94%▲ 3
  • Hike 1-25bps3%▼ 4
  • Cut 1-25bps2%▼ 1
  • Cut more than 25bps1%
  • Hike more than 25bps1%

How the odds have moved

Maintain current rate: 91% on Nov 6, 94% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Maintain current rate 94% ▲ 3 94¢ 96¢ $1.04 3.2K
Hike 1-25bps 3% ▼ 4 2¢ 5¢ $20.00 400
Cut 1-25bps 2% ▼ 1 1¢ 4¢ $25.00
Cut more than 25bps 1% 2¢ $50.00 250
Hike more than 25bps 1% 2¢ $50.00 250

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Czech National Bank

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  • Czech National Bank: Neutral new normal – INGFXStreet · 3 days agoING economists David Havrlant and Frantisek Taborsky review the Czech National Bank’s 25bp hike to 4%, decided on a narrow 4–3 vote. They highlight stronger inflation and softer growth in the CNB forecast, with 4% seen as a neutral level…
  • Czech National Bank review: The new neutral normalING THINK · 4 days agoing think The CNB increased the policy rate to 4%, in line with market expectations. However, the decision was very close, a 4-3 split. The new CNB forecast is revised toward a punchier inflation amid a softer economic expansion, implying…
  • Czech National Bank raises rate to 4%: will mortgages get pricierAround Prague · 4 days agoThe Czech National Bank (CNB) on Thursday raised its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4%. It is the second hike this year, following one in June. The decision matched analysts' expectations, who had pointed to persistent…
  • Czech National Bank preview: Another hike, more on the horizonING THINK · 5 days agoWe expect the CNB to hike rates by 25bp to 4.00% next week, with further tightening ahead We expect the CNB to hike rates by 25bp to 4.00% on 5 November, with hawkish forecast revisions leaving further tightening on the table. Higher…
  • Czech National Bank may raise rates as inflation acceleratesAround Prague · 6 days agoThe Czech National Bank (CNB) is expected to raise its base rate, currently at 3.75%, in the near future, according to economists. The reason is that inflation in Czechia is picking up again. For borrowers, this means mortgages and other…
  • EXPLAINED: How the Czech National Bank‘s rate change could affect you@expatscz · 6 days agoWritten by William Nattrass Published on 04.11.2026 09:11:00 (updated on 04.11.2026) Reading time: 5 minutes The Czech National Bank (ČNB) is expected to increase its base interest rate to 4 percent tomorrow. What will the increase of 0.25…
  • AI Stocks Fall as Data-Center Concerns GrowIJR News · 2 days agoDemocrats’ midterm victories put prominent critics of AI data centers in positions to intensify scrutiny of the industry, with campaigns targeting the projects’ energy use, environmental effects and local impacts. The results could slow…
  • Plancorp Adds $192 Million Across Five ETFsIJR News · 2 days agoNo bias-rated sources yet Economists expect the Czech National Bank to raise its key rate by a quarter-point, from 3.75% to 4%, as underlying inflation remains elevated and energy costs add pressure. The increase could make borrowing more…
  • Czech Republic raises rates in split voteCentral Banking · 3 days agoThe Czech National Bank (CNB) raised its two-week repurchase rate by 25 basis points on November 5, with three of the board’s seven members preferring to leave policy unchanged. The decision ended a pause that had been in place since June…
  • Parallel Advisors Increases Stakes Across Five ETFsIJR News · 2 days agoParallel Advisors increased its third-quarter holdings across five ETFs, with especially large additions to the iShares International Country Rotation Active ETF and iShares iBonds Dec. 2027 Term Treasury ETF. It also added shares of…
  • Czech Koruna: Limited CNB tightening keeps CZK under pressure - CommerzbankFXStreet · 4 days agoCommerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that the Czech National Bank (CNB) delivered a widely expected 25 bp hike to 4.00%, but a narrow 4–3 vote and ‘fine-tuning’ language signal low odds of further tightening. Staff forecasts show inflation…
  • Czech Koruna: Range seen holding against Euro – INGFXStreet · 4 days agoING strategist Frantisek Taborsky assesses EUR/CZK after the Czech National Bank’s dovish-leaning 4–3 split decision. He notes that rate differentials would point to a weaker koruna, but sees the recent rally in CZK rates as excessive…

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