Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
>99%chance▲ 53
Install
Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in December (Dec 9, 2026 meeting)
The odds
86%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate86%▼ 1
- Cut 1-25bps7%▲ 2
- Cut more than 25bps2%▼ 1
- Hike 1-25bps2%
- Hike more than 25bps2%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Maintain current rate: 63% on Nov 4, 86% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintain current rate | 86% | ▼ 1 | 86¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 94.00 |
| Cut 1-25bps | 7% | ▲ 2 | 5¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 644 |
| Cut more than 25bps | 2% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 133 |
| Hike 1-25bps | 2% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 7.00 | |
| Hike more than 25bps | 2% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Central Bank of Brazil
Search ›- Brazil Court Orders Freezing of Up to BRL 3.48 Billion in Illegal Betting InvestigationThe Civil Police of the Federal District (PCDF) of Brazil is conducting Operation Azzardo to investigate the illegal operation of betting platforms and the financial networks allegedly involved in these operations. The Department for…
- Brazil police investigate fintech A55 in $135 mn illegal betting probeBrazilian police have launched a major investigation into an alleged illegal betting and money laundering network that used shell companies and financial institutions to process hundreds of millions of reais in transactions. The Federal…
- Brazil Central Bank Halts Rate Cuts After Lula's Reelection; Policy Rate Seen at 13.75% Through 2028Market positioning had already shifted before the hold. Investment platform XP had revised its base-case scenario to a 13.75% rate for all of 2027 just before the COPOM meeting. Chief Economist Caio Megale analyzed that the decision…
- São Paulo Rents by Neighborhood in 2026São Paulo’s rent map runs from R$100.1 to R$49.2 per m², a gap of about two to one. A 60 m² flat in Pinheiros asks about R$6,010 (about US$1,110) a month, while the same size in Santana asks about R$2,950 (about US$545). Our numbers come…
- Brazilian Real: Rate-cut pause but medium-term gains – CommerzbankCommerzbank’s Norman Liebke expects the Central Bank of Brazil to pause its rate-cutting cycle at 13.75% amid fiscal and inflation concerns after Lula’s re-election. He notes unanchored inflation expectations but argues this is only a…
- Florianópolis Rents by Neighborhood in 2026Florianópolis, a city built mostly on an island in southern Brazil, has the fifth-highest average rent of the 22 capital cities Fipe tracks. A 60 m² flat asks about R$2,720 to R$4,100 (about US$505 to US$755) a month, depending on the…
- Rio de Janeiro Rents by Neighborhood in 2026Rio de Janeiro is one city with a three-to-one gap in rents. A 60 m² flat in Leblon asks about R$7,480 (about US$1,385) a month, while the same size in Tijuca asks about R$2,330 (about US$430). Our numbers come from the FipeZAP Residential…
- Rising Rate Pressures Make Founder-Controlled Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI), Nu Holdings (NYSE: NU) And Figure Technology Solutions (NYSE: FIGR) Worth A Closer LookBy Ewan Scott | Nov 2, 2026 | Economy & Business, Featured, News & Analysis With borrowing costs still squeezing capital-intensive technology ventures, investors are increasingly turning to companies where founders retain meaningful equity…
- Brazil crypto licensing draws just 40 firms as deadline passesBrazil’s cryptocurrency industry has seen far fewer companies enter the country’s new licensing process than initially expected, with roughly 40 institutions identified ahead of the October 30 deadline. According to an assessment cited by…
- Brazil Price Index Cools to 1.47% in OctoberBrazil’s price pressure eased, its bank lending slowed and its government’s pre-interest deficit narrowed in figures released on Thursday 29 October 2026. The IGP-M price index, bank lending growth and the public sector’s primary result…
- Brazil September Deficit Hits US$21 BillionRio Times Markets · Brazil Brazil’s public sector ran a nominal deficit of R$113 billion (about US$21 billion) in September, wider than the R$100 billion analysts expected, because interest on its debt remains very heavy. Moving to Brazil…
- Coinbase files for Brazil crypto license ahead of central bank deadlineThe US exchange submitted its VASP application days before Brazil's October 30 cutoff and expects to keep serving local customers during the review Gloria daily close for session Oct 28, 2026. Market cap and trailing P/E use this close…
Related markets
All central banks ›Bank of England decision in December?
58%No change
- No change58%
- 25 bps increase42%▲ 4
- 25 bps decrease<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Bank of Brazil decision in December?
89%No Change
- No Change89%▲ 1
- 25 bps decrease7%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease2%
2 more
- 25 bps increase1%
- 50+ bps increase1%
Bank of Canada Decision in December?
70%No Change
- No Change70%▼ 4
- 25 bps increase29%▲ 5
- 25 bps decrease<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%▲ 10
- No change21%▼ 13
- 50+ bps increase1%▼ 2
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Bank of Russia decision in December?
82%No change
- No change82%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease14%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase3%▼ 1
2 more
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions