Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
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Reserve Bank of India rate decision in December (Dec 4, 2026 meeting)
The odds
79%Hike 1-25bps
- Hike 1-25bps79%▲ 4
- Maintain current rate13%▲ 1
- Hike more than 25bps5%▼ 1
- Cut more than 25bps2%
- Cut 1-25bps2%
How the odds have moved
Hike 1-25bps: 69% on Oct 19, 79% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 1-25bps | 79% | ▲ 4 | 79¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | 962 |
| Maintain current rate | 13% | ▲ 1 | 12¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 1.8K |
| Hike more than 25bps | 5% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 627 |
| Cut more than 25bps | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 | 3.7K | ||
| Cut 1-25bps | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 | 11.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Reserve Bank of India
Search ›- Reserve Bank of India moves lift 10-year yield to 7.44%Reserve Bank of India liquidity tightening and its 25-basis-point repo rate increase to 5.50% pushed the benchmark 6.94% 2036 government bond yield to 7.4427%, as traders priced in reduced banking-system liquidity and the prospect of…
- After 22 years, RBI reopens UCB licensing: can new audit rules ensure a safer banking sector? | ExplainedRBI reopens UCB licensing with MSCARO 2026 and ICAI guardrails to ensure safer, transparent, and better-governed cooperative banks. Once bitten, twice shy. India’s urban cooperative banks (UCBs) have had their share of troubled episodes…
- Capri Global Capital Limited submits revised ALM statement to RBICapri Global Capital Limited has submitted its revised Asset Liability Management (ALM) statement as of September 30, 2026, to the Reserve Bank of India, complying with SEBI regulations. The information is also available on their website…
- RBI launches 3 surveys to capture inflation expectations, consumer confidenceMumbai, Nov 3 (PTI) Reserve Bank on Tuesday announced three key surveys to capture inflation expectations of households and gauge consumer confidence in the country— the studies that provide input for bi-monthly monetary policy. The…
- RBI eases reporting norms for small service exporters and importersMumbai, Nov 3 (PTI) The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday eased reporting requirements for small service exporters and importers, including relaxing rules for filing export declarations. The central bank has made amendments to the…
- Food Inflation in IndiaFor Prelims: Inflation, Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), Consumer Food Price Inflation (CFPI), Lok Sabha, Minimum Support Price (MSP) For Mains: Impact of rising food inflation on farmers and macroeconomic…
- RBI approves appointment of Sankaran G as ED of City Union BankRBI approves Sankaran G as Whole-time Director-Executive Director at City Union Bank for three years. City Union Bank on Monday said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has given its approval for the appointment of Sankaran G as Whole-time…
- India eases forex reporting rules for small value service exports, importsThe Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday notified changes to foreign exchange reporting rules for small-value services exports and imports, exempting resident individuals from declaration requirements and introducing a threshold of 1 million…
- RBI Eases Reporting Norms For Small Service Exporters And Importers; Revises ₹10 Lakh ThresholdMumbai, November 3, 2026: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday eased reporting requirements for small service exporters and importers, including relaxing rules for filing export declarations. The central bank has made amendments to…
- RBI Approves Sankaran G as Executive Director of City Union BankCity Union Bank Limited has informed the stock exchanges that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has approved the appointment of Shri Sankaran G as Whole-time Director designated as Executive Director of the Bank. Current Position: Executive…
- Strong RBI dividend, robust disinvestment to support India’s fiscal position in FY27: ReportNew Delhi, Nov 3 (IANS) Robust revenue from RBI dividend transfers, improving disinvestment proceeds and sustained growth in capital expenditure are expected to help the Centre manage fiscal pressures in FY27, a report showed on Tuesday. A…
- SBI posts quarterly profit rise on loan growth, stake saleState Bank of India posted a more than 14% rise in second-quarter profit on Tuesday, driven by robust loan demand and gains from a SBI Funds Management stake sale. The country's largest lender by assets reported a net profit of 230.38…
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Bank of Brazil decision in December?
89%No Change
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Bank of Canada Decision in December?
70%No Change
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Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%▲ 10
- No change21%▼ 13
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Bank of Russia decision in December?
82%No change
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions